金融科技：2026年行业状况

Institutional Research Group Fintech: State of the Industry 2026 Rudy YangSenior Research Analyst, EnterpriseFintech and Retail Fintechrudy.yang@pitchbook.com Signals from fundraising, exits, and secular shifts pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on January 16, 2025 Executive summary Contents A post-reset fintech market will see a different set of winners Executive summary1Key takeaways2Emerging trends and 2026 secular tailwinds5Deal environment24Market signals45 The fintech ecosystem is entering 2026 with momentum, marked by a return to pre-pandemic funding levels and arevitalized exit market. However, the post-reset fintech landscape looks fundamentally different from the one thatpreceded it. Scale, profitability, and infrastructure depth now matter as much as speed, and only a narrow set ofbusiness models are earning sustained investor conviction. This report examines that shift. Now, AI is reshaping cost structures and competitive moats across fintech, whilestablecoins, tokenized assets, and agent-driven payments are beginning to harden into real financial rails. At the sametime, fintech companies are re-engaging with regulation through bank charters and deeper balance-sheet ownership,even as consumer and credit dynamics grow more uneven. The pages that follow explore which of these shifts are structural, which are cyclical, and what they mean for capitalallocation and strategy in 2026. Key takeaways Capital markets, valuations, and exit liquidity •Funding stabilized and exits rebounded: Fintech VC deal value returned to pre-pandemic levels at $41.3 billion YTD,characterized by fewer deals but higher average check sizes. B2B captured 59% of VC deal value, and late-yearactivity drove most of the investment. •Exit markets reopened: In 2025, VC exit value rose 282.4% to $67 billion, with $53.8 billion in IPOs, $10.8 billionin M&A, and $2.4 billion in buyouts. Despite a robust IPO window, the performance of new public listings hasbeen mixed. •Public fintech companies have underperformed: Public fintech performance was generally below that of majorindexes in 2025. Hyperscalers within neobanks and neobrokers, such as Robinhood, Dave, Nubank, and SoFi, werenotable bright spots. •The profitability premium: The average EV/TTM sales ratio continues to trade over three turns higher for profitablefintech companies (5.5x) compared with unprofitable ones (2.8x). •The AI premium: Capital is concentrating in AI-enabled fintech startups, which captured 45% of US VC deal value.AI fintech companies see the fastest fundraising time between rounds—a median of 1.6 years—and lead both inmedian deal sizes and valuations at the early stage. Macroeconomic fundamentals and credit dynamics •Spending has remained healthy, but the K-shaped economy is real: Retailers and banks have noted that consumerspending has stayed resilient, while Visa and Mastercard have reported steady payment volume growth. However,consumer strength has been increasingly concentrated at income extremes. •Credit has reached new highs but remains sustainable: US household debt is at a record $18.6 trillion, with$1.2 trillion in credit card balances.14.5% of this debt is delinquent, still well below the average level of 8.5%during the global financial crisis (GFC). Pockets of stress in credit cards and lower-income cohorts should bemonitored in 2026. Key trends and technological alpha •Stablecoins will become mainstream: The average supply of stablecoins reached $273.8 billion in Dec 2025, up46.8% YoY.2New regulatory clarity has allowed for greater institutional adoption. Expect more banks to supporttokenized deposits and on-chain products in 2026. •Tokenization is moving beyond Treasurys: Distributed tokenized real-world asset value is now $19.9 billion, up259.3% YoY.3Though Treasuries make up 44%, there is fast growth in commodities (18%) and private credit (16%).Leading managers have also launched tokenized funds, while upcoming pilots from capital market infrastructureplayers signal broader adoption in H2 2026. •New payments infrastructure is being born from agentic AI: A race has begun to build payment rails for AI agents.Major players, including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and OpenAI, are launching protocols that enable machines toautonomously transact, verify identity and intent, and manage funds. •Prediction markets will become a new information layer: Weekly notional volumes surpassed $5 billion inDecember 2025,4evolving from niche betting platforms into legitimate financial information inputs used byinstitutions and media. Kalshi and Polymarket hold a combined 64% share and raised $4.5 billion across sixrounds in 2025.5 •Bank charters return: A “now or never” wave of bank charter applications has emerged from mature fintechcompanies, seeking to lower funding costs, access payment rails directly, and control the custody of assets. This islikely to continue and could reset bank-fintech competition going forward. St