尿素周报：关注春节前收单情况

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1788元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒市场价1740元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1760元/吨（+10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1760元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-28元/吨（-2）；河南尿素基差-48元/吨（-12）；江苏尿素基差-28元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润195.0元/吨（+10.0）；出口利润870.4元/吨（-0.4）。 供应端：截至2026-01-25，企业产能利用率86.39%（+1.13%）；企业厂内库存为94.6万吨（-4.0）；港口库存为13.4万吨（+0.0）。 需求端：截至2026-01-25，复合肥产能利用率42.96%（+2.88%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.65%（+1.5%）；尿素企业预收订单天数5.88日（-0.2）。 市场分析 尿素现货成交一般，但降价企业成交较好。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端本周因雨雪天气影响，采购有所减弱，农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中。下周厂家降价进行春节收单，采购或好转。淡储采购中。复合肥开工回升，采购好转。三聚氰胺装置复产，开工提升，刚需采购。本周东北区域需求推动内蒙去库，整体尿素厂内库存去库，港口库存持平。受伊朗局势影响国际尿素价格上涨，印度预计再次招标，当前国内出口配额暂无新消息，后续持续关注出口动态、全国淡储节奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 策略单边：震荡偏强跨期：UR05-09逢低正套跨品种：无 风险 装置检修与复产情况、库存变动情况、尿素出口影响、东北采购节奏 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB.........................................................................................................................................