能源转型对劳动力的影响建模

Marc AC Hafstead and Roberton C Williams III About the Authors Marc AC Hafsteadis an Resources for the Future (RFF) fellow and director of theCarbon Pricing Initiative and the Climate Finance and Financial Risk Initiative. Hisresearch has primarily focused on the evaluation and design of federal and state-level climate and energy policies using sophisticated multi-sector models of the USeconomy. With Stanford Professor and RFF University Fellow Lawrence H. Goulder,he wroteConfronting the Climate Challenge: US Policy Options(Columbia UniversityPress) to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of federal carbon taxes,cap-and-trade programs, clean energy standards, and gasoline. His research has alsoanalyzed the distributional and employment impacts of carbon pricing and the designof tax adjustment mechanisms to reduce the emissions uncertainty of carbon taxpolicies. Roberton C Williams IIIstudies both environmental policy and tax policy, with aparticular focus on interactions between the two. In addition to his role at RFF, he is aprofessor at the University of Maryland, College Park and a research associate of theNational Bureau of Economic Research. He was previously an associate professor atthe University of Texas, Austin; a visiting research scholar at the Stanford Institutefor Economic Policy Research; and an Andrew W. Mellon Fellow at the BrookingsInstitution. Williams has served as a coeditor of both theJournal of Public Economicsand theJournal of Environmental Economics and Management. About RFF Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution inWashington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resourcedecisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF iscommitted to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policysolutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy. Working papers are research materials circulated by their authors for purposes ofinformation and discussion. They have not necessarily undergone formal peer review.The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from thoseof other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. Sharing Our Work Our work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. Youcan copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must giveappropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made,and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonablemanner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, orbuild upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. For moreinformation, visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Modeling the Labor Implications of the EnergyTransition Marc A.C. Hafstead1and Roberton C. Williams III3,1,2 1Resources for the Future2National Bureau of Economic Research3University of Maryland January 2026 Abstract The energy transition away from fossil fuels toward alternative energysources will, like every significant economic transition, disrupt existingeconomic relationships and markets. Disruption in the labor market is ofparticular concern due to the distributional and political importance of energyjobs and the potential concentration of risks on workers in carbon-intensivesectors and regions that are particularly reliant on fossil-fuel industries. Welook at modeling the labor implications of the energy transition. We outline aconceptual framework for analyzing the labor-market risks, focusing onobstacles to labor-market adjustments during the transition. We then reviewempirical research on such barriers to labor-market adjustments, with a focuson evidence that can inform modeling efforts. We also survey the literature onex-ante modeling of the effects of the energy transition on labor markets,identifying both the challenges and opportunities for new research in this field. Keywords: Energy Transition, Labor Markets, Jobs 1Introduction The world is in the early stages of a transition from fossil fuels to alternative energysources. Although this transition will bring substantial benefits, it will also havesubstantial costs. And, like every significant economic transition, it will disruptexisting economic structures, institutions, and relationships. Disruption in the labormarket is a particular concern because of the major distributional and politicalimportance attached to jobs (unemployment, wages, “good jobs,” etc.), andpotential economic efficiency costs. Being able to measure—and, better still,predict—it can help guide decisions for policies that could accelerate or slow thetransition and policies that could mitigate potential harms from any such disruption. We look at modeling the labor-market