转型中的碳市场：通往2030年之路

CARBON MARKETSIN TRANSITION:THE PATH TO 2030 GHG MARKET SENTIMENT SURVEY 2024/25 CARBON MARKETS IN TRANSITION:THE PATH TO 2030 01EXECUTIVE SUMMARYPg 05 02MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENTAND CEO OF IETAPg 06 03ABOUT THE SURVEYPg 08 04EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEMS (ETS)Pg 10 05CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENTMECHANISM (CBAM)Pg 15 06CORSIAPg 20 07ARTICLE 6 08VOLUNTARY CARBON MARKETPg 29 09CARBON PRICE PROJECTIONSPg 34 ABOUT PWCPWC UK HELPS ORGANISATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS CREATE THE VALUE THEY’RE LOOKING FOR. WE’RE A MEM- BER OF THE PWC NETWORK OF FIRMS IN 149 COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 370,000 PEOPLE COMMITTED TODELIVERING QUALITY IN ASSURANCE, TAX AND ADVISORY SERVICES. THE STRATEGY & VALUE CREATION TEAMAT PWC UK HELPS BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR CLIENTS ADDRESS THE SPECIFIC AND IMMEDIATE ISSUESRELATING TO SUSTAINABILITY, AS WELL AS WITH LONGER-TERM STRATEGIC THINKING. YOU CAN FIND OUT MOREBY VISITING US AT WWW.PWC.COM/UK. ABOUT IETATHE INTERNATIONAL EMISSIONS TRADING ASSOCIATION (IETA) IS A NON-PROFIT BUSINESS ASSOCIATION WITH A MEMBERSHIP OF OVER 330 LEADING INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS OPERATING IN COMPLIANCE ANDVOLUNTARY CARBON MARKETS. SINCE ITS FOUNDATION IN 1999, IETA HAS BEEN THE LEADING VOICE OF BUSI-NESS ON MARKET BASED AMBITIOUS SOLUTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE. WE ARE A TRUSTED ADVISER TO GOV-ERNMENTS TO SUPPORT THEM IN BUILDING INTERNATIONAL POLICY AND MARKET FRAMEWORKS TO REDUCEGREENHOUSE GASES AT THE LOWEST COST, INCREASE AMBITION, AND BUILD A CREDIBLE PATH TO NET-ZEROEMISSIONS. SEE WWW.IETA.ORG FOR MORE INFORMATION. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THIS YEAR’S KEY FINDINGS 01CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM DEFINES CARBON MARKET SENTIMENT. WHILEPARTICIPANTS REMAIN CONFIDENT IN THE LONG-TERM EXPANSIONAND LINKAGE OF NATIONAL ETS, UNCERTAINTY AROUND INTEGRATIONTIMELINES AND POLICY DESIGN HAS GROWN SINCE 2023. 02INTEGRITY AND TRUST ARE DRIVING A NEW PHASE FOR THE VOLUN-TARY CARBON MARKET. RESPONDENTS HIGHLIGHT STRONGER GOV-ERNANCE, QUALITY STANDARDS, AND ALIGNMENT WITH COMPLIANCESYSTEMS AS KEY TO REBUILDING CONFIDENCE AND CREDIBILITY. 03RESPONDENTS REMAIN CONFIDENT THAT CARBON PRICES WILL IN-CREASE IN THE LONG TERM, THOUGH EXPECTATIONS HAVE MODER-ATED. A STEADY PRICE GROWTH IS ANTICIPATED TO 2030, DRIVEN BYHIGH-INTEGRITY CREDITS, DESPITE NEAR-TERM DECLINES AND SOFT-ER PROJECTIONS THAN IN 2023. 04IETA MEMBERS DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT, BY 2030, PRICE INCREAS-ES IN ANY NATIONAL ETS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH THE LEVELSREQUIRED TO ACHIEVE EITHER THE 1.5°C OR 2°C GOALS OF THE PARISAGREEMENT. CONFIDENCE IN ARTICLE 6 HAS GROWN SHARPLY AMONGST IETAMEMBERS, WITH 91% OF RESPONDENTS ANTICIPATING IT WILL BE A KEYDRIVER OF FUTURE CLIMATE ACTIONS, COMPARED WITH 45% IN THE2023 SURVEY. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 04.ARTICLE 6:Confidence in Article 6 strength-ened in 2024–2025, with 91% of respondentsviewing it as a key driver of climate action followingthe COP29 ‘playbook’. However, concerns persistaround complex methodologies, limited host-coun-try capacity, and weak market demand, underscor-ing the need for greater clarity and coordination torealise its full potential. 01.ETS:Overall sentiment reflects reservedconfidence. While respondents broadly supportthe expansion and linkage of national ETS, confi-dence in timelines and integration has weakenedsince 2023. Uncertainty around implementationand design details persists, but expectations forlong-term convergence and inclusion of removalsremain strong. 05.VCM:In 2024–2025, the voluntary carbonmarket entered a phase of transformation, with in-tegrity, transparency, and trust emerging as corepriorities amid tightening standards and evolvingmethodologies. Despite ongoing uncertainty anddeclining transaction volumes, respondents werecautiously optimistic that stronger governance,growing alignment with compliance markets, andrisingdemand for high-quality removal creditsare signalling a more credible and resilient marketahead. 02.CBAM:Attitudes remain optimistic that EUCBAM will protect EU companies from carbonleakage. Recent changes the EU has made, tight-ening anti-circumvention rules and reducing theadministrative burden of CBAM, are in line withrespondents’ views on the main considerations forensuring the long-term success of CBAM. Howev-er, despite a clear legal framework, stakeholdersstill doubt whether the sale of CBAM certificateswill commence on time. 03.CORSIA:Respondents express muted con-fidence in CORSIA’s ability to achieve Phase 1compliance, with the majority anticipating under-supply of credits by 2027 and only a small minori-ty expecting market balance. Views are shapedby scepticism over credit availability, fragmentedpolicy alignment between the EU and ICAO, andweak enforcement capacity. While recent reformsimprove transparency and reduce offset demand,sentiment remains cautious, most see CORSIA’ssuccess hinging on scaling eligible supply, ensur-ing consistent global enforcement, and clarifyinglong-term design to secure participation. 06.PRICE PROJECTIONS:Sentiment towardsfuture carbon pr