力拓与嘉能可合并。格拉斯伯格专家电话会议。行业更新。估值。

RIO GLEN Merger. Grasberg Expert Call.Sector Update. Valuations. RIO GLEN Merger: the mega merger is here - our initial thoughts On Thursday, RIO and GLEN announced that the two companies have "beenengaging in preliminary discussions about a possible combination of some or all oftheir businesses". Limited details have been released, although the currentexpectation is that any transaction would be effected through the acquisition ofGLEN by RIO. Under the UK Takeover Panel rules, RIO has until 5pm on 5 Februaryto announce a firm intention to make an offer, although this could be extended. Wehave written at length about the likelihood of further sector consolidation,specifically involving Glencore (Kingmaker), and believe this deal could make a lot Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst Cody HaydenResearch Analyst Grasberg copper mine: Expert Call on 13 January We are hosting an expert call with Iain Ross (IR) on Tuesday, 13 January at 12:30UK/13:30 CET/07:30 ET, to discuss the Grasberg Block Cave incident and recoverypathway for the world’s second-largest copper mine. IR is an expert in undergroundmining, with over 25 years of industry experience. The temporary suspension inSeptember of the Grasberg underground copper mine in Indonesia was the single- Pricing update: hang on for the ride! Metal prices and mining equities have had a strong start to 2026, driven by acombination of severe supply disruptions, the threat of US tariffs, the AI thematicand investment flows into the space. The pace of the rally is creating nervousnessamong some investors and, given last year's volatility buying opportunities couldopen up as the year progresses. We revise our industrial commodity price estimates picks are GLEN, Anglo Teck, FCX and BOL. Glencore: returning to base camp =>$£5/sh. Buy We have undertaken a detailed review of GLEN's copper pipeline, which consistsof a wide range of >10 projects (totalling >$23bn in capex) and is aimed atexpanding group copper production to 1.1 mt by 2029. The 1.1 mt target isachievable, in our view, and would return production to 2021/22 levels (‘BaseCamp’), and increase copper's contribution to group industrial EBITDA from ~40% Downgrade to Sell: competition for the copper crown ANTO doubled in value in 2025 and decoupled from the copper price through H2,reflecting operational challenges at other major producers and scarcity value ingood quality, lower risk copper companies. Valuation is now very full, pricing in thecompany’s growth pipeline and discounting a long-term copper price of ~$12,500/t. ANTO is a good operator and we remain positive on the outlook for copper, but a Week ahead, Q1 reporting calendar & company events FM is scheduled to release its three-year outlook on 15 January, with LUN expectedto report its Q4'25 production results during the week; refer to our Global MiningCalendar for Q1'26 (Fig 1) for a detailed list of financial reporting, company field tripsand CMDs. We also provide a more detailed summary of individual company eventsand catalysts across our coverage (Fig 2-13). Multiple data points are expected over Data & news flow Ex-Chinaaluminium output in Novemberwas 2,439 kt, down 0.5% YoY on a dailyoutput basis. China’sBF capacity utilisation rate for the week ending 31 Dec stoodat 85.3%, up by 0.3 ppts WoW. Daily average crude steel output for CISA membersover 21-31 Dec was down sharply by 11% from mid of December and down 12% YoY.Traders’ steel inventories down 3% WoW(up 11% YoY). China’s domestic steel scrap price flat WoW (down 4% MoM).Iron ore port inventories +1% WoW (up 7% YoY). China'sDecember steel industry PMI at 46.3, down 1.7 percentagepoints MoM, hit its lowest in six months and down 1.2 percentage points YoY. Chinaproperty sales increased 36% WoW and down 33% YoY over the past four weeks. China’s power generation index down 2% WoW (up 2% over the last four weeks Commodity price and FX trends (Fig 22-29) Base metals have broadly moved higher over the past week, with Cobalt (+6%), followed by aluminium (+4%), nickel (+3%) and copper (+2%). Precious metals alsoincreased, led by platinum and palladium (both +11%), silver (+8%), rhodium (+5%)and gold (+4%). Within bulks, coking coal (+2%) and iron ore (+1%) increased,while NEWC remained flat. Mining currencies were mixed against the USD, led by MTM earnings & valuations (Fig 14-21) Spot FCF yields (2026E)are highest for VALE (+12%), followed by GLEN (+10%),RIO (+7%), BHP (+6%) and Anglo (+4%). Spot EV/EBITDA (2026E) is lowest forVALE (3.5x), followed by GLEN (4.4x), RIO (5.2x), BHP (5.9x) and Anglo (8.3x). Earnings upgrade riskremains positive for all names (2026E EBITDA basis): Anglo,RIO, GLEN, BHP and VALE are +15-25%. Copper producers’ upgrade risk sits at DB Mining latest research highlights nRIO GLEN Merger: The mega merger is herenMetals & Mining: Pricing update: hang on for the ridenGlencore: Returning to base camp = >£5/sh. BuynAntofagasta PLC: Downgrade to Sell: competiti