TSMC2330T学习今日宝贝

1Q26 Revenue/ GPM: Not much debate，investors are generally looking for flat to up LSD QoQ with GM of 60%+，in line withCharlie’s preview of 1Q26 revenue to be flat QoQ，1Q2 TSMC (2330 TT) Earnings Today – Bogeys 1Q26 Revenue/ GPM: Not much debate，investors are generally looking for flat to up LSD QoQ with GM of 60%+，in line withCharlie’s preview of 1Q26 revenue to be flat QoQ，1Q26 GPM at around 60%. 2026 FY Rev: Buyside expects TSMC to guide for mid 20s% YoY growth but ultimately deliver over 30% YoY growth. AI Semis CAGR: It’s pretty consensus that company will raise the AI Semis CAGR fromthe current mid-40s%，but consensus issomewhere between 50-55% vs. Charlie’s expectation of 60%. 2026 CAPEX: Biggest Debate. Consensus is for $48-50bn (In-line with Charlie)，with SPE bulls expecting $50-52bn.Meanwhile，most of the local investors expect closer to US$45bn (or guidance range of 43–47bn). Key Focus: 1) AI Supply Chain Bottlenecks，2) 2nmCapacity and Price Hike，3) US Investment，4) Non-AI demandoutlook，5) China AI GPU foundry opportunity，6) Intel’s foundry outsourcing and competition 台积电(2330 TT)今日财报焦点 2026年第一季度营收/毛利率：市场分歧不大，投资者普遍预期环比持平至低个位数增长，毛利率60%+，与查理预览的“一季度营收环比持平、毛利率约60%”的观点一致。 2026年全年营收：买方预期台积电将给出同比中双位数（mid-20s%）的增长指引，但最终可实现超30%的同比增长。 AI半导体年复合增长率：市场普遍预期公司将把AI半导体CAGR从当前的40%中段上调，共识区间在50-55%，而查理预期可达60%。 2026年资本支出：最大分歧点。 市场共识预期为480-500亿美元（与查理预期一致），半导体设备板块的乐观者预期500-520亿美元。 同时，多数本地投资者预期更接近450亿美元（或指引区间为430-470亿美元）。 关键关注点：1) AI供应链瓶颈，2) 2nm产能与涨价，3)美国投资进展，4)非AI需求展望，5)中国AI GPU代工机遇，6)英特尔的外包策略与竞争态势。