中国经济评论：出口增长再度加速，超出我们的预期

China Economic Comment Economics Another export growth acceleration, upside risk China William DengEconomistwilliam-w.deng@ubs.com Another positive surprise from export growth Grace WangEconomistS1460524050003grace-zc.wang@ubs.com+86-105-832 8335 Exports grew by 6.6% y/y in December, compared to the prior growth of 5.9% andsurpassing the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3.0%. On a seasonally adjustedbasis, we estimate that export levels expanded by 1.5% over the month; as a result,export momentum (3m/3m%) accelerated further to the strongest level since July. Ourcurrent estimate suggests a slight moderation in real export growth to 8.2% from Jennifer ZhongEconomistS1460516050002jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com+86-105-832 8324 A mild uptick in shipments to the US, other destinations were the source ofstrength Yu SongEconomistS1460526010002yu-za.song@ubs.com+86-10-5832 8508 Export levels to the US registered a mild expansion of 0.6% over the month on aseasonally adjusted basis, though the monthly shipment level remained at the low endof historical trends and was 28% below the first quarter monthly average. The tariff de-escalation in early November appears to have helped stabilize shipment levels; however, Ning ZhangEconomistning.zhang@ubs.com Tech and auto exports took the lead Export growth of the tech basket accelerated to 19.8% y/y in December, marking thefastest growth in recent years, with further acceleration in electronic integrated circuitexports and upswings from shipment growth of computers and mobile phones y/y fromcontractions previously. While a low base contributed to these swings, we believe thesestrong numbers also benefited from the upswing in the global tech cycle. Our early Much better than expected import growth as well Import growth accelerated to 5.7% y/y, well ahead of the Bloomberg consensusexpectation of 0.7%. We observed positive swings across the major import categories.Import growth in the key commodities basket swung to 6.6% y/y growth from a 0.8%contraction in prior months. We noted that this upswing is attributable to a lowstatistical base, price impacts, as well as sequential import volume expansion. Our earlyestimate shows improvements in the underlying import volume trend of crude oil, ironore, and copper ore. Import growth of IT components accelerated, consistent with the Resilient trade growth in 2025 despite significant uncertainties Despite the US-China trade war and significant global trade uncertainties, China’sexports managed to grow by 5.5% in 2025, largely unchanged from the 5.8% growthin 2024. In 2025, exports to the US contracted by 20%, compared to 5% growth in2024. Accelerated shipment growth to other economies helped support overall exportgrowth. Exports to the US accounted for 11% of China’s total exports in 2025, down Upside risk to our export projection ahead Recent survey indicators, including the US ISM manufacturing new orders, Korea’s newexport orders index, and China’s official NBS PMI new export orders, have mostlyregistered improvements. This recent trend is also evident in the most recent regionalexport growth data from countries such as Korea and Vietnam, both of which have Given the weak domestic demand condition, corporates have been motivated to seeknew exporting markets, which might also support the the continued strength in export Earlier on, we projected a slowdown for China’s export growth to 2.5-3.0% for 2026.The robust underlying demand reflected by the latest data points, market share gains(especially into the new markets such as African economies and in intermediate andcapital goods), as well as the favorable impact of the AI-driven tech cycle upswing—suggest that there is potential upside risk to this export projection. The resilient export Source: CEIC, UBS Source: CEIC, UBS Source: CEIC, UBS Source: CEIC, UBS Source: CEIC, UBS Source: CEIC, UBS Source: CEIC, UBS Source: CEIC, UBS Valuation Method and Risk Statement Risks include macroeconomic variables (such as GDP growth rates and inflation), economicslowdown, a weakening currency, global economic events, and government policy changes. Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches andaffiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS". For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product;historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms andconditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwiseindicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterlyreports and other company announcements. The figures