2026年纸业与包装报告：适应当下，塑造未来

Adapting today, shaping tomorrow Paper & Packaging Report 2026 Contents Introduction letter2Resilience and Efficiency3Don’t Underestimate the Cost of Overcapacity4Transforming Maintenance with Artificial Intelligence10It’s Time to Rethink Every Link in Your Supply Chain15Customer-Led Growth20Luxury Packaging: Resolving the Tension Between Creativity and Impact21To Make Money, Follow the Money26M&A in Paper and Packaging: Bigger but Fewer Deals31Battle of the Substrates36Sustainability: Less Talk and More Action42Chemical Recycling: Plastics Firms Must Move Now or Miss Out47 Paper & Packaging Report 2026 Introduction letter Paper and packaging executives today face a complex set of challenges,including low profitability,overcapacity, and subdued demand levels. Stiff price competition is the norm, and markets have diverged.North American companies have fared slightly better in terms of operating rates and asset utilization Bain’s secondPaper & Packaging Reportdelivers insights into how leading companies areadapting to these challenges,cutting costs, and taking action to grow going forward. The report looksat managing overcapacity, the supply chain, and maintenance as key ways to build organizational Ilkka Leppävuori Leader of Bain’s Global Packaging sector Resilience and Don’t Underestimate the Cost of OvercapacityTransforming Maintenance with Artificial Intelligence RESILIENCE AND EFFICIENCY Don’t Underestimate the Cost Overcapacity is endemic to the paper and packaging industry, but these actions By Ilkka Leppävuori, Joshua Hinkel, and Michael Tonelli At a Glance Most companies aim to grow their profits at four times the rate of the market, but only To manage overcapacity, leading paper and packaging companies focus on improving their AI can help by transforming sales and operations planning into a continuous process, withinsights constantly updated, reprioritized, and aligned across functions Managing overcapacity and the low profit margins that follow is a well-known headache for paper andpackaging executives. A new multiyear study by Bain & Company shows why overcapacity persists across Most companies aim to grow their revenues at twice the rate of the underlying market and profits at fourtimes the rate of the market. In reality, only 7% of industrial companies achieve this goal. Furthermore, incapital-intense industries like paper and packaging, these optimistic plans often lead to significant capital Paper & Packaging Report 2026 In paper and packaging, leading companies do not bet on competitors scaling down or disappearing;instead, they focus on improving their own cost advantage, as overcapacity could reoccur. This mightmean proactively closing capacity when necessary and avoiding the scenario in which supply so outstrips Three steps to manage overcapacity 1. Understand your risk and exposure.Successful companies begin by analyzing their current andexpected supply and demand balance in the grades they produce, both in the short term and the longterm. They also look at their competitive position in terms of their fully landed cash cost per ton to determine: Do we have a competitive advantage, and are we also able to make money across market Paper & Packaging Report 2026 2. Map your strategic options, offensive and defensive.While growing scale can improve one’s positionin certain industries, it’s usually not effective in creating long-term durability in paper and packaging.Instead, the cash cost position (i.e., the cost to produce a ton of board or paper) is typically what matters Leading companies do not bet on competitors scalingdown or disappearing; instead, they focus on improving In times of overcapacity, companies have a range of strategic options to weigh(see Figure 2). Investing in capacity, efficiency, and converting to new grades.Companies that are capable of makinginvestments often do so in competitive new capacity, such as investing in new mills or new technologies.New assets perform significantly better than aging assets, and it’s usually not possible to close that gap Successful companies also improve their cost position by investing in efficiency. They do not necessarilyadd capacity but continuously push to produce every ton at a lower price. They do so by improving energy Finally, they often convert to another grade where there is more room to grow than in the existing grade.They take into account the technical limitations of current assets as well as which products they could Closing capacity and optimizing existing mills.Along with the high-performing mills in its portfolio, everypaper and packaging company likely also has mills that are struggling. For these mills, the best optionmay be to close uncompetitive capacity. Closing mills usually comes with high costs and strong social Paper & Packaging Report 2026 Go big or go home Invest in competitive new capacity What you need to believe • Market overcapacity is temporary• You have a strong bala