行业研究公司研究宏观策略财报招股书会议纪要海南封关低空经济 DeepSeek AIGC 大模型

评估亚美尼亚的财政框架

2025-12-08国际货币基金组织极***

AI智能总结

Armenia’s fiscal framework includes an MTEF, an annual budget, and fiscal rules. The framework faces limitations in countercyclicality, flexibility, complexity, coverage, monitoring and enforcement, and transparency. Despite the 2018 reforms strengthening the fiscal rules, limitations persist: rules are somewhat procyclical and complex, ex-post enforcement is not legally binding, coverage is restricted to central government, and operational flexibility is limited. Armenia’s fiscal rules have served the country well, but further improvements could be considered. Drawing on international best practices, the paper recommends upgrading fiscal rules to improve countercyclicality, simplify design, broaden coverage, and strengthen transparency and enforcement. Proposed reforms include consolidating expenditure rules, formalizing escape clauses, expanding coverage, and empowering independent oversight.

The 2018 reforms aimed to strengthen countercyclicality but gains have been limited. Fiscal policy was consistently procyclical in good times during 2010-17 and remained procyclical ex-ante and ex-post as growth rebounded and reached peak levels during 2022-24. The fiscal rules are inherently procyclical and may incentivize unrealistic planning. Enforcement of fiscal rules is not legally binding, and the escape clause lacks clarity and specificity about potential trigger events and procedural details.

Armenia’s fiscal rules provide flexibility through an escape clause and a reserve fund, but there are key limitations. The escape clause lacks clarity and specificity, and the reserve fund is used more like a tool for discretionary spending. The complexity of the fiscal rules reduces their effectiveness and ease of communication. The coverage of fiscal rules in Armenia is limited to central government and does not cover subnational governments, SOEs, PPPs, and contingent liabilities.

Independent monitoring, compliance, and enforcement of fiscal rules have been lacking. The authorities have made progress enhancing the transparency and reporting of the fiscal framework, but major gaps remain, including limited institutional coverage. International comparison shows that Armenia’s fiscal rule strength initially remained below peers’ average but caught up with the 2018 reforms. However, deviations from the debt rule limit have been in line with the overall trend in its peer group, but smaller deviations were experienced for the balanced budget rule. Compared to peers, Armenia’s fiscal rule shows limited countercyclical features and has considerable room for improvement.

The paper recommends several policy options for Armenia. Improving countercyclicality and escape clauses could be achieved by upgrading the expenditure rule, redesigning the balanced budget rule, and strengthening the escape clause. Simplifying the design of fiscal rules could be achieved by consolidating separate rules into an “all inclusive” or a more streamlined expenditure rule. Enhancing transparency and broadening coverage could be achieved by adequately reporting compliance with fiscal rules, enhancing the standardization of debt reduction plans, and expanding the coverage of fiscal rules to include off-budget entities and contingent liabilities. Strengthening the oversight and enforcement of fiscal rules could be achieved by establishing an independent fiscal council or enhancing the mandate of existing oversight bodies.

Evaluating Armenia’s Masud Al Taj, Nazim Belhocine, Vahram Janvelyan, and ErvinPrifti SIP/2025/155 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2025DEC IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Evaluating Armenia’s Fiscal Framework, Republic of ArmeniaPrepared by Masud Al Taj, Nazim Belhocine, Vahram Janvelyan, and Ervin Prifti* Authorized for distribution byAlexander Tieman IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was completed ABSTRACT:This paper evaluates Armenia’s fiscal framework, focusing on fiscal rule design andimplementation. Despite the 2018 reforms strengthening theArmenia’sfiscal rules, limitations persist: rules aresomewhat procyclical and complex, ex-post enforcement is not legally binding, coverage is restricted to centralgovernment, and operational flexibility is limited. Armenia’s fiscal rules have served the countrywell, but furtherimprovements could be considered. Drawing on international best practices, the paper recommends upgrading RECOMMENDED CITATION:Al Taj, M., Belhocine, N., Janvelyan, V., Prifti, E. (2025) “Evaluating Armenia’sFiscal Framework”, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, Selected Issues Paper, SIP/2025/155. SELECTED ISSUESPAPERS Evaluating Armenia’s Fiscal Republic ofArmenia Prepared byMasud Al Taj, Nazim Belhocine, Vahram Janvelyan, and Ervin REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA SELECTED ISSUES November10, 2025 ApprovedByMiddle East and Prepared ByMasud Al Taj, Nazim Belhocine,VahramJanvelyan, andErvin Prifti,with assistance fromDesislavaHineva,BrandenLaumannandXiaoqiao Shen. CONTENTS EVALUATING ARMENIA’S FISCAL FRAMEWORK___________________________________2A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________2B. Armenia’s Fiscal Framework Performance____________________________________________3C. Policy Options for Armenia________________________________________________________14 BOXES 1. Fiscal Rules___________________________________________________________________________42. Recent Refinements in Fiscal Framework_____________________________________________63. Examples of Countercyclicality_____________________________________________________154. Best Practices of Escape Clauses and Correction Mechanisms______________________165. Canada, Sweden and Aruba’s Independent Fiscal Institutions______________________18 FIGURES 1. Fiscal Policy (Non-Crisis Period)______________________________________________________92. Fiscal Rule Strength Index__________________________________________________________113. Fiscal Rule Strength Index in 2021__________________________________________________124. Baseline Index, 2005 Onward_______________________________________________________125. Rule Compliance—Middle-Income Average________________________________________136.Economyby Countercyclicality Strength___________________________________________14 TABLES 1. Adherence to the Capital Expenditure Rule__________________________________________72. Adherence to the Primary Current Expenditure Rule_________________________________73. Adherence to the Current Expenditure Rule Condition on Tax Revenues_____________7 References____________________________________________________________________________20 EVALUATING ARMENIA’S FISCAL FRAMEWORK A.Introduction 1.Establishing a robust fiscal framework has become increasingly critical forgovernments worldwide as they navigate elevated debt levels and evolving spendingdemands.A sound fiscal framework serves multiple interconnected objectives that collectively aimto promote macroeconomic stability, enhance resource allocation efficiency, and build public 2.The strategic value of fiscal frameworks is to improveresource allocation andplanningby extending the government's decision-making horizon beyond the traditionalannual budget cycle.Such a medium-term perspective enables policymakers to systematicallyconsider the implications of current spending and tax policies on future fiscal stances, facilitating 3.Fiscal rulesplay a pivotal role in operationalizing these broader framework objectivesby establishing specific, measurable constraints on key fiscal aggregates.These typically targetvariables such as debt, deficit, and expenditure levels. Fiscal rules serve as commitment devices thathelp governments signal their dedication to fiscal responsibility, thereby enhancingcredibilitywiththe public and financial markets.The design of fiscal rules must carefully balance several competing 4.The implementation of fiscal rules within broader fiscal frameworks has evolvedsignificantly over time, particularly following recent global crises.This evolution recognizes thateffective fiscal management requires not just nu

点击免费查看完整报告

你可能感兴趣

评估亚美尼亚的财政框架

你可能感兴趣

Ararat 财政战略模型：亚美尼亚财政政策分析的结构框架

评估亚美尼亚财政制度对性别差距的影响

亚美尼亚：技术援助报告：量化气候变化带来的财政风险

亚美尼亚的残疾评估改革（英）

从噪音到转折点：亚美尼亚季节调整的新框架