全球市场观察：美股期货承压与软件行业AI展望

早上好。尽管亚洲隔夜表现强劲（SHCOMP +1% / 香港+1.5% / 香港科技+3%），美国期货整体下跌（纳斯德-85 个基点/标普-60 个基点/罗素-85 个基点）。今晨的重点是周末新闻：美联储收到司法部传票，特朗普呼吁一年内将信用卡利率限制在 10%（COF -10%，AXP -4%，MA -2%，V -2% 对 AFRM +4%，KLAR +7%，XYZ +3%）。微型移动股较为平静，除 BABA 为中国遏制食品外送价格战而加持的+4%（香港美团+7%）。在 GS研究方面，Gabriela Borges 负责大型股软件（购买名称：MSFT、ORCL、CRM、NOW、SNOW、NAVN......卖名：ADBE、DDOG......中立区：CRWV、FIG、INTU、WDAY）。 TMT NEWS:TMT 新闻： META: Meta Shuts 550,000 Accounts on Australia’s Kids Social Media Ban META：Meta 关闭了 55 万个关于澳大利亚儿童社交媒体禁令的账号 Meta Platforms Inc. said it has shut down almost 550,000 accounts in Australia to comply with thecountry’s landmark social media ban for children. The social media giant has closed around 330,000Instagram accounts, 173,000 Facebook accounts and almost 40,000 Threads accounts belonging topeople believed to be under 16 years of age, it said in a blog post. The law, which came into effectDec. 10, mandates services such as ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok and Instagram keep under-16s off theirplatforms or face fines of up to A$49.5 million ($33 million). It marks Australia as the world’s firstdemocracy to undertake such a crackdown in response to growing concerns about social media’s harms. Meta Platforms Inc.表示，已关闭澳大利亚近 55 万个账户，以配合该国对儿童的标志性社交媒体禁令。这家社交媒体巨头在一篇博客文章中表示，已关闭约 33 万个 Instagram账号、17.3 万个 Facebook 账号以及近 4 万个 Threads 账号，这些账户属于被认为是 16岁以下的人群。该法律于 12 月 10 日生效，规定字节跳动有限公司的 TikTok 和Instagram 等服务必须禁止 16 岁以下用户使用平台，否则将面临最高 4950 万澳元（3300 万美元）的罚款。这标志着澳大利亚成为世界上第一个因应对社交媒体危害日益增长的担忧而采取此类打压的民主国家。 BABA: Meituan, Alibaba Shares Jump as China Seeks to Curb Price Wars 巴巴：美团、阿里巴巴股价飙升，中国试图遏制价格战 Shares of China’s biggest food-delivery firms climbed as the nation’s top antitrust body launched aprobe into competition practices in the sector, spurring hopes that authorities will rein in subsidy-drivenprice wars. Market leader Meituan’s stock rallied 6.6% in Hong Kong, the most since May 29. Sharesof Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., the biggest challenger to Meituan, rose 5.3% while those of JD.com Incgained more than 2%. 随着国家最高反垄断机构对该行业竞争行为展开调查，中国最大的食品外卖公司的股价上涨，激发了人们对当局遏制补贴驱动的价格战的希望。市场领头羊美团在香港股价上涨6.6%，为 5 月 29 日以来最高涨幅。阿里集团控股有限公司作为美团最大挑战者，股价上涨5.3%，而 JD.com 集团股价上涨超过 2%。 Assuming Software Sector Coverage into the Decade of Agentic Workflow: Buy MSFT,ORCL & NOW; Sell ADBE & DDOG (Borges) 假设软件行业覆盖进入代理式工作流程十年：立即购买 MSFT、ORCL 及现行;出售 ADBE和 DDOG（博尔赫斯） We assume coverage of the Software Sector and 12 additional stocks. We are constructive on AIadoption being a positive tailwind to the Software TAM over the next 5-10 years. Datapoints in anygiven year may be uneven as the ecosystem matures and as competition evolves; nonetheless, weexpect signals on uptake will be more positive in 2026. For the infrastructure providers, we believe thekey to stock outperformance will be realizing durable revenue growth and better gross margins, bybuilding capacity that is fungible across customers and workloads, and via silicon diversification; BuyMSFT for Azure revenue revisions and call options on multiple vectors of AI adoption; and ORCL forimproving visibility on capex and ahead of a trough in gross profit growth. For the applicationproviders, we introduce a framework to evaluate AI maturity, including stack replatforming, pace oforganic and inorganic innovation, and monetization, with CRM (Buy) screening well. Lastly, we believeoutsized value will accrue in the agent orchestration layer that controls and governs agents across multiple vendors, and see NOW as well positioned. GIR fullnote. 我们假设涵盖软件行业及另外 12 只股票。我们对人工智能的采用在未来 5 到 10 年内将成为软件 TAM 的积极顺风持建设性态度。随着生态系统的成熟和竞争演变，任何一年的数据点可能不均衡;尽管如此，我们预计 2026 年关于接受的信号将更加积极。对于基础设施提供商来说，我们认为实现股价超标的关键在于实现持久的收入增长和更好的毛利率，通过构建跨客户和工作负载的可替代能力，并通过硅片多元化;购买微软的 Azure 收入修订和多方向AI 采用的看涨期权;以及 ORCL 因提升资本支出可见度及在毛利润增长谷前获得认可。对于应用提供商，我们引入了一个评估人工智能成熟度的框架，包括技术栈重构、有机与无机创新速度以及变现，CRM（购买）测试表现良好。最后，我们相信将通过控制和管理跨多厂商代理的代理编排层积累超额价值，并且认为 NOW 处于有利位置。GIR 完整说明。 SPECIALIST CONTENT:专业内容： Callahan: “What a start to the year. Maybe it’s just me – but, that felt like one of thelongest weeks I’ve had in a long time with daily moves 2x-3x as big as one wouldthink relative to a 14-handle VIX and the NDX finishing up a cool ~230 bps on theweek (among its best weeks since early-August). 卡拉汉：“今年开局真是太棒了。也许只有我这么觉得——但那感觉是我很长时间以来最长的一周之一，日均涨势比 14 手柄 VIX 大了 2 到 3 倍，NDX 本周也以 230 个基点的冷静收尾（这是自八月初以来最好的一周之一）。 .. in the early goings of 2026, franchise flows (& price action) pointed to a clear, CYCS > DEFSrotation – that said, within TMT, the day to day price action has consistently elicited a number of “whyis…” questions from investors to start the year as the AI trade has fragmented (lots of debate on thespread in ‘compute’ vs SPE / Memory –more below), Software hasn’t shown the ability to sustain abounce (esp in SaaS / Apps), Cyclicals have traded great (... though, already some ‘too far, too fast’debates – see Analog Semis), and, Internet trades ‘fine’ one day, but not great the next (.. inboundselevated across names like UBER, DASH, SPOT, ABNB, RDDT).” ..2026 年初，特许经营股流（及价格走势）显示出清晰的 CYCS > DEFS 轮换—