FY25 preview: core NP growth trimmed to low teens

FY25 preview:core NPgrowth trimmed to lowteens We forecast CR MixC'sFY25E revenue to increase by6.5% YoY to RMB18.2bn, where the residential segment is flat YoY, dragged byVAS biz. Duringthe period, we expectthe commercial segmentto grow13.8% YoY, mainlybecauserevenue growthofshoppingmallslowedto 18% on a high base(30%in FY24 driven byone-off factors).We expect coreNPto rise 10.8% YoY toRMB 3.9bnin FY25E, underpinned by stableGPmargin in basicPM, continuedimprovement inGPmarginofshoppingmall, and lowerSG&Aratio.Overall, wemaintainFY25-27E revenue forecasts unchanged, but cut coreNPforecasts by4% to reflect a more reasonable margin expansion pace. We raise our targetP/Emultiple by 9% to 25x, reflecting reduced reliance on residential biz,strengthened sector leadership, and enhanced scarcity premium amid capitalallocation demand.We raise ourTPby4% to HK$53.96, equivalent to 25x2026E PE.Giventhelong-terminvestmentvalueof the Company, FY25resultsat the lower end of guidancerangemay trigger share price pullback,andthuswe advise investors to build positions proactively.Shoppingmallbiz:FY25E retail sales growth is expectedto liein the 20- Target PriceHK$53.96(Previous TPHK$51.84)Up/Downside20.2%Current PriceHK$44.90 China PropertyManagement Miao ZHANG(852) 3761 8910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk 25% range, with 14 luxury malls growing faster, mainly benefiting from newconsumption formats such as trendy toys, gold &jewelleries, and outdoorgearsetc. We expect related consumption tocontinue tooutperformpeersin 2026amid ongoing geopolitical turbulence and domestic asset pricepressure. We estimate the segment’s FY25E revenue to increase 18% YoY(vs. 30% in FY24), primarily due to a high base (one-off). On third-partyexpansion, the company secured 11 projects by end-Nov, exceeding the full-year target of 10, and completed the target of 14 new openings.WeexpecttheGPcontributionfromshopping mallbizto reach 60% in FY25E, liftingthe entireGPcontributionofcommercial operations segmenttoabove 70%.Residential biz: We expect segment revenue to be broadly flat (+1.3% YoY)in FY25E, with basic PM remaining stable amid sector headwinds, up8.7% YoY.Non-owner VAS and community VAS revenues each declined30%+YoY, dragged byshrinkingnew home marketand accounting methodchanges. SegmentGP margin remained stable. Third-party expansionreached RMB 940mn by end-Nov, largely on track to meet the full-yeartarget of RMB 1.0bn.100% payout can be expected. We see a high likelihoodthatthe company will maintain a 100% payout ratio (60% ordinary + 40% special), based on:1) no clear plan for large-scale capital deployment at present; and 2)according torecent PM sector practice, when results land at or belowguidance, firms tend to use a higher payout ratio to stabilize marketsentiment. Source: FactSet Source:Company data,Wind,CMBIGMestimates(data as of13 Jan 2026) Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in thisreport: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered inthis research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock withpotential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmarkover next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMBInternational Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be s