2025年业绩回顾、上半年日历、铝专家电话会议及估值分析

IndustryMetals & Mining 2025 Performance Review. H1 Calendar.Aluminium Expert Call. Valuations Liam Fitzpatrick 2025 global performance trends: a breakout year (Fig 1-3 Research Analyst+44-20-754-13233 2025 was a breakout year for commodities and global mining equities. Globalgrowth continued, which combined with various factors including supply-sidedisruptions, geopolitical uncertainty and USD weakness (down 9% in 2025) drovecommodity prices higher. Despite the strong performance, there were significantbumps along with way, most notably the Liberation Day sell-off in April. Copperreached a new all-time high of over ~$12,900/t in late December, and preciousmetals also performed very strongly (gold +65%, silver +148%); copper and silverwere the two top performing major assets in December and Q4 (link). Steel-makingmaterials (iron ore, coking coal) were amongst the worst-performing commoditiesin 2025, but still posted positive year-on-year price gains. For the year as a whole,the mining sector (SXPP +45%, Global M&M +61%) outperformed broader markets(FTSE 100 +31%, Euro Stoxx +34%, S&P 16%), with the copper and precious metalssub-sectors outperforming. Copper names that avoided any major operationaldisruptions performed particularly well (LUN +139%, ANTO +106%, FM +99%),while others lagged (FCX +33%, TECK +18%). The majors mostly outperformedglobal markets, with VALE (+47%) and Anglo (+33%) leading RIO (+27%), BHP andGLEN (both +15%). All figures on a USD basis. Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 Cody HaydenResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13230 Global Aluminium: expert call on 7 January We are hosting an expert call with Gregory Wittbecker (GW), on Wednesday 7January at 15:00 UK/16:00 CET/10:00 ET, to discuss the latest trends and outlookfor the aluminium market, including US policy and tariffs, Indonesia's supplygrowth potential, a possible Russia/Ukraine cease-fire and Europe's upcomingpolicy developments (scrap restrictions and the CBAM). GW is an expert in the field,with over 40 years of industry experience, including stints at Alcoa and CRU. Theformat will be a virtual ~45 minute fireside discussion with an opportunity for Q&A.Click here to register. Please contact a member of the team for any registrationqueries. Q1 reporting calendar & company events To kick off 2026 and the busy Q1 period for markets, we have included our GlobalMining Calendar for Q1'26 (Fig 4), which includes a detailed list of financialreporting, company field trips and CMDs. We also provide a more detailedsummary of individual company events and catalysts across our coverage (Fig 5-16). 4 January 2026Metals & MiningMetals & Mining 2026 Copper Outlook: the deficit has arrived We recently published our 2026 mining outlook focusing on the copper market. Ouranalysis points to a supply squeeze as industry consolidation gathers pace. Severesupply disruptions have pushed the copper price to record levels, and our refreshedanalysis shows mine supply declining in 2025 and rebounding only ~1% next year,with recent 2026 guidance updates pointing to minimal supply growth. We see themarket in a clear deficit with mine supply weakest in Q4’25 and Q1’26 andanticipate peak prices and refined market tightness in H1’26. Mine supply couldrecoverfrom mid-2026,although this will be dependent on operationalimprovements / restarts at several large mines. Chinese demand slowed sharply inH2'25 and concerns have risen over an AI bubble, highlighting the risks as we headinto 2026, but, barring a global slow down, we think an incentive-based pricingregime is here to stay. Our favoured names to gain exposure to copper include: (1)Anglo & Teck (transformation); (2) GLEN (value and consolidation); (3) FCX (self-help); and (4) BOL (growth recovery). FM: announces the sale of its wholly-owned subsidiary Cobre Las Cruces FM (Hold) has entered into an agreement to sell the Las Cruces mine in Spain toGlobal Panduro (owned by Resource Capital Funds) for consideration of up to$190m plus a profitability-linked earn-out provision. The transaction is expected toclose in H1’26 and paves the way for Global Panduro to develop the Las Crucespolymetallic primary sulphide project (the ‘Project’), which represents the minesnext phase of development via a new underground mine. The binding agreementincludes $45m in cash at closing, a $65m loan note, up to $80m in milestone-linkeddeferred payments, and a contingent earn-out of 10% tied to exit and liquidityevents above an agreed internal rate of return threshold. Las Cruces represents anon-core asset after the mine had been placed on care and maintenance in 2023. Data & news flow Recent reports suggest that RIO and FMG have switched the index the companieswill use for China iron ore pricing, which follows public criticism of the currentmechanism from CMRG. Ex-Chinaaluminium output in Novemberwas 2,439 kt,down 0.5% YoY. The Jan-Nov 2025 YTD output is flat YoY. China produced 3.6 mtof aluminium in Nov (30