独家：埃隆·马斯克预测特朗普·万斯·万斯将执政 12 年

Exclusive: Elon Musk predicts 12 years of Trump VanceVance 独家：埃隆·⻢斯克预测特朗普·万斯·万斯将执政12年 Musk was bullish on the GOP's presidential prospects at a DOGE reunion in Texas, where heappeared virtually, citing fears of assassination. 马斯克在德州⼀场DOGE聚会上通过视频亮相时对共和党总统前景持乐观态度，并表⽰担⼼被暗杀。 B yS O P H I A C A I作者：S O P H I A C A I1 2 / 0 2 / 2 0 2 5 0 5 : 1 0 P M E S T During a video appearance at a reunion of his former federal cost-cutting team,Elon Musk predicted that the country is at the start of a “great 12-year span”composed of the second Trump administration followed by two consecutive JDVance terms. 在⼀次他以前联邦削减成本团队重聚的视频露⾯中，埃隆·马斯克预测，美国正处于⼀个“伟⼤的12年时期”的开端，这⼀时期将由第⼆个特朗普政府开始，随后是两届连续的JD·万斯任期。 Musk made the prognostication on Nov. 22 beforecurrent and former DOGEmembersgathered inside a Musk-owned, high-ceilinged building near hisSpaceX and Boring Co. facilities in Bastrop, Texas, according to two attendeesand another person familiar with the private event, all of whom were grantedanonymity to discuss it candidly. 据两位与会者和另⼀位熟悉该私⼈活动的⼈⼠透露，马斯克于11⽉22⽇在⼀幢他拥有的、靠近他位于德克萨斯州巴斯特罗普的SpaceX和Boring Co.设施、挑⾼天花板的建筑内，在现任和前任DOGE成员聚集时做出了这⼀预⾔。三⼈均被允许匿名以便坦率讨论此事。 While Musk’s relationship with Donald Trump went up in flames in June andhas been rebuilt since, the entrepreneur this year developed a strong personalrelationship with the vice president. Though Musk has taken a step back frompolitics, the tech mogul —and his dramatically outsized political spending—would be a powerful booster for Vance if he runs in 2028 and Musk chooses tobe involved. 尽管马斯克与唐纳德·特朗普的关系在6⽉⼀度破裂并随后修复，这位企业家今年却与副总统建⽴了牢固的个⼈关系。尽管马斯克已在政治上有所后退，这位科技⼤亨——以及他那惊⼈的政治开⽀——如果万斯在2028年参选且马斯克选择参与，将会成为万斯的强⼤助推⼒量。 Musk dialed into the reunion at the Boring Bodega convenience store fromwhat appeared to be a pitch-black, undisclosed location, the people said. Headdressed roughly 150 current and former members of the DOGE team — thegroup Musk installed across federal agencies at the start of the Trumpadministration to slash federal spending and jobs — along with some of theirfamily members who had flown in for the gathering. 据与会者称，马斯克从⼀个看起来漆⿊⼀⽚、未公开的位置，通过电话接⼊了在Boring Bodega便利店举⾏的重聚会。他向⼤约150名现任和前任DOGE团队成员——这个团队是马斯克在特朗普政府初期安插到各联邦机构以削减联邦开⽀和裁员的——以及为了参加聚会⽽飞来的⼀些他们的家属发表讲话。 Participants had their phones stored in security pouches until buses came topick them up when the event concluded. 与会者在活动结束后上车返回前，⼿机被存放在安全袋中。 As attendees ate barbecue and fajitas at long Thanksgiving-themed tables,Musk told the room he opted against showing up in person because the news ofthe reunion was public. He said he believed he was among the topassassination targets in the country, behind only Trump and Vance. Musk, whoendorsed Trump after the then-candidate was shot in Butler, Pennsylvania, hasraised similar concerns before. On aTesla shareholder calllast year, he musedthat he “should probably start working out more” to reduce the likelihood ofbeing assassinated. 当与会者在长长的感恩节主题餐桌上吃着烧烤和法加它时，马斯克告诉场内的⼈他选择不亲⾃出席，因为重聚的消息已经公开。他说他认为⾃⼰是全国范围内的⾸要暗杀⽬标之⼀，仅次于特朗普和范斯（Vance）。马斯克在那位时任候选⼈在宾⼣法尼亚州巴特勒遭枪击后曾公开⽀持特朗普，他此前也表达过类似担忧。去年在⼀次特斯拉股东电话会议上，他曾感慨⾃⼰“可能应该开始多锻炼”以降低被暗杀的可能性。 But Musk’s virtual appearance disappointed some attendees who wereexpecting to see Musk in person. 但马斯克的线上亮相让⼀些原本期待能亲眼见到他的⼈感到失望。 “Some people who brought their spouses were embarrassed at howunderwhelming the event was, especially since Musk did not show up,” one ofthe people said. “有些带着配偶来的⼈对这次活动感到尴尬，因为实在令⼈失望，尤其是马斯克并未露⾯，”其中⼀位⼈⼠说。 Musk thanked the group for the sacrifices they made during their stint inWashington — including leaving higher-paying jobs, weathering political blowback, and enduring death threats. 马斯克感谢了这群⼈在华盛顿任职期间所作的牺牲——包括离开更⾼薪的⼯作、经受政治反弹以及忍受死亡威胁。 In a characteristically wide-ranging and at times rambling set of remarks,Musk jumped from fears of civil conflict to the Kardashev scale, a theoreticalmeasurement of a civilization’s technological advancement, to his argument forestablishing a colony on Mars. He joked that Earth-launched missiles couldn’treach Mars quickly, and that even if they did, the six-month travel time wouldgive settlers plenty of time to prepare, drawing laughs from the room. 在⼀段典型的⼴泛⽽有时漫⽆边际的发⾔中，马斯克从对内战的担忧跳到卡尔达肖夫量表（⼀种衡量⽂明技术进步的理论尺度），又谈到他建⽴⽕星殖民地的论点。他开玩笑说，从地球发射的导弹⽆法迅速到达⽕星，即便能到达，六个⽉的航程也会给定居者留下充⾜的准备时间，逗得现场发出笑声。 One attendee said Musk peppered his comments with references to science-fiction novels he had read, including Robert Heinlein’s “The Moon Is a HarshMistress,” about a lunar colony rebelling against Earth, and Isaac Asimov’s“Foundation” series. ⼀位与会者说，马斯克在讲话中穿插了他读过的科幻⼩说的引⽤，包括罗伯特·海因莱因的《⽉亮是个严厉的⼥主⼈》（讲述⽉球殖民地反抗地球的故事）和以撒·阿西莫夫的《基地》系列。 A number of senior Musk lieutenants who were involved with DOGE includingSteve Davis and Anthony Armstrong attended the gathering, where someDOGE alumni traded stories aboutliving on the sixth floor of the GSAbuildingin Washington while executing Musk’s cost-cutting directives. 包括史蒂夫·戴维斯（Steve Davis）和安东尼·阿姆斯特朗（AnthonyArmstrong）在内的多位参与DOGE事务的马斯克⾼层随从出席了这次聚会，⼀些DOGE⽼成员在会上互相讲述了他们在执⾏马斯克削减成本指令期间，住在华盛顿GSA⼤楼六楼的趣