1月资产配置月报：宏观友好，金属乐观

Assets Allocationin January:Macro Friendly,MetalsOptimistic 1月资产配置月报：宏观友好，金属乐观 姜婧Jiang Jing从业资格号Qualification No.:F3018552投资咨询号Consulting No.:Z0013315王含章Wang Hanzhang从业资格号Qualification No.: F03121254投资咨询号Consulting No.: Z0022985仲鼎ZhongDing从业资格号Qualification No.:F03107932投资咨询号Consulting No.:Z0021450张皓云Zhanghaoyun从业资格号Qualification No.:F03114820投资咨询号Consulting No.:Z0022427朱善颖Zhu Shanying从业资格号Qualification No.: F03138401投资咨询号Consulting No.: Z0021426王丹Wang Dan从业资格号Qualification No.: F03124139投资咨询号Consulting No.: Z0023462桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z001363 More English Reports onCITIC FuturesWebsite：https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要Abstract Following the Fed's rate cut in December, the market's focus shifted from expectation of a singlerate cut to re-pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity.Chinese domesticpolicy expectationsare also relatively positive. It is recommended that in January, while maintaining a balanced allocationapproach, more attention be paid to seizing structural opportunities. Forequities, a long positionoverweight can be considered. Under the support of macro and industrial logic,non-ferrous metalscan maintain a long position overweight. Forprecious metals,exercise caution regarding volatility;consider re-weighting oncevolatility stabilizes. Risks:Geopolitical risks; Unexpected strengthening of the US economy, which could underminethe logic of interest rate cuts;Chinese domesticincremental policies and economic recovery fallingshort of expectations; Unforeseen tightening of liquidity; Unexpected rebound of the US dollar index. 12月美联储降息落地后，市场主线由单一降息预期转向对后续政策路径与流动性的再定价，国内政策预期也偏积极。建议1月在均衡配置思路上更加注重把握结构性机会。权益可考虑多头超配，有色金属在宏观与产业逻辑支撑下维持多头超配；贵金属需警惕波动，可在降波后再次超配。 风险因素：1）地缘风险；2）美国经济意外走强，导致降息逻辑破坏；3）国内增量政策和经济修复不及预期；4）流动性超预期收紧；5）美元指数超预期反弹。 Content目录 2.Macro Environment Outlook.............................................7 2.1 Overseas Macro.......................................................................72.2Chinese Domestic Macro............................................................10 3.Outlook for Major Assets...............................................11 3.1 Equity indices........................................................................11 3.2.1Precious Metals..............................................................................123.2.2Non-Ferrous Metals..........................................................................133.2.3Ferrous Metals..............................................................................143.2.4Energy & Chemicals..........................................................................14 一、综述：宏观相对友好，看多股指、有色金属、贵金属..........................17二、12月回顾：风险资产企稳回升，贵金属涨幅显著.............................18 1.美国：美联储如期降息，关注下任主席提名............................................................192.非美：日央行加息，非美发达市场与新兴市场均平稳....................................................20 四、大类资产展望：关注流动性预期再走扩的驱动................................21 1.贵金属：中长期趋势未改，短期注意宽幅震荡..........................................................222.有色金属：宏观基本面双重利好，向上趋势不改........................................................223.黑色金属：冬储或成主线，宏观驱动减弱..............................................................234.能源化工：增产步伐放缓，原油或低位震荡............................................................23 Charts图表 Chart 1: Performance of Major Asset in December.............................................6Chart 2: US Economic Data................................................................8Chart 3: China Economic Data.............................................................11Chart 4: CSI 300 MA.....................................................................12Chart 5: CSI 300 ERP....................................................................12Chart 6: Au, Ag, and Implied Volatility.......................................................13Chart 7: Gold ETF Holdings...............................................................13Chart 8: Copper Refinery Costs............................................................13Chart 9: Chinese Copper Inventory.........................................................13Chart 10: China's Cement Dispatch.........................................................14Chart 11: China's Rebar Consumption......................................................14Chart 12: U.S. Output Projection...........................................................15Chart 13: OPEC Output...................................................................15Chart 14: Yield Spread 10Y-2Y.............................................................16Chart 15: CGB Yield......................................................................16图表1：12月大类资产表现...............................................................18图表2：美国经济数据概览...............................................................20图表3：中国经济数据概览...............................................................21图表4：沪深300均线.............................................