矿山扰动持续推升铜价

Recently, copper prices have maintained a strong upward trend, with SHFE Copper futures breaking through 105,oo0yuan/ton and LME Copper futures surpassing 1,3ooo US dollars/ton. On the news front, supply disruption events have emerged. According to SMM reporting:First, Capstone Copper announced that the labor union at its Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will launch a strike,which is expected to slash the mine's output to 3o% of its normal capacity-the mine has an annual production capacity of2oo,ooo tons of copper cathode. Second, Tongling Nonferrous Metals disclosed that the second phase of the Miradorcopper mine in Ecuador has been officially postponed, further tightening the copper supply market. 的30%，该矿年产量约3万吨。二是，铜陵有色披露其控股子公司旗下厄瓜多尔米拉多铜矿二期工程，因《采矿合同》 Outlook市场展望On the copper ore front, supply disruptions continue to mount. Earlier supply tightness triggered by Indonesia'sfinalized at an all-time low of O US dollars/ton. Prior to this, the China Smelter Purchasing Team (CSPT) held discussions and reached a consensus among member enterprises to cut copper ore-based smelting capacity by over 10% in 2026.Coupled with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reaffirming its stance on optimizing coppersmelting capacity, expectations for a contraction in refined copper supply have been further strengthened.On the demand side, as the off-season sets in, end-user demand remains sluggish and inventories keep piling up.toward tightening.Looking ahead, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and expanding its balance sheet, the US dollar remains prices are likely to stay strong. It is recommended to continue monitoring long positions in copper.expectations; Economic recession..铜矿方面，供应扰动持续增加。前期印尼Grasberg铜矿的减产加剧了铜矿供应的紧张程度，近期铜矿供应扰动再次加剧，铜矿供应延续收紧。冶炼方面，2026年铜矿长单加工费落地，创造了历史的极低值0美元/吨。此前，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT)研究讨论，成员企业达成共识将在2026年度降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，叠加发改委再次强调优化铜冶炼产能，精炼铜供应收缩预期进一步加强。需求方面，淡季来临，终端需求延续疲弱，库存持续累积。但是由于供应收缩预期强化，远期供需有望转向收紧 展望后市，随着美联储降息以及扩表，美元依旧保持弱势，宏观对铜价具有支撑。考虑到铜矿供应扰动不断， 风险因麦·羊联侠派不乃预期·国内雨复节不乃预期·经汶衰退Source:SMM CITic FuturesImportant Notice:This report is not a service under futures trading consulting business. The views and information contained herein are for reference only and do notconstitute investment advice to any person. We will not regard any person as our client merely because they have paid attention to, received, or read the contents of thiseport. The market is subject to risks, and investment should be made with caution.Disclaimer:Unless otherwise stated, CITic Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to and data contained inhisreport.This reportdoesnotconstituteanyprivateconsultingadvicegivenbyCiTiCFutures.重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信不构成对任何人的投资建议。收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。免责声明：除非另有说明中信期货有限公司（以下简称“中信期货）拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议