可再生能源智能电气化：推动能源服务转型

Driving the transformationof energy services Copyright © IRENA 2022 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/orstored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Materialin this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, andappropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. Citation IRENA (2022), Smart Electrification with Renewables: Driving the transformation of energy services,International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN: 978-92-9260-367-0 Available for download: www.irena.org/publications. For further information or to provide feedback, please contact IRENA at info@irena.org. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation thatsupports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principalplatform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology,resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoptionand sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower,ocean, solar and wind energy in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energysecurity and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.www.irena.org Acknowledgements This report was authored by Asami Miketa, Francisco Boshell, Daniel Russo, Bowen Hong (Loan Officer,SGERI), Gayathri Prakash, Elisa Asmelash, Luis Janeiro and Sean Collins from the International RenewableEnergy Agency, and Jun Liu, Junshu Feng, Ning Zhang, Xiaocong Liu, Longzhu Liu, Suxiu Li, Fang Tang,Chuncheng Zhang, Jiangtao Li, and Lu Xing from the State Grid Energy Research Institute (SGERI). Thereport was edited by John Carey and Justin French-Brooks. This report also benefited from valuable contributions by experts Dolf Gielen, Paul Komor, Nicholas Wagner,Yunshu Li and Antonina Scheer of IRENA and Liping Jiang, Yaohua Wang, Gang Lu, Baoguo Shan, HongcaiDai and Haifeng Zheng of SGERI. IRENA appreciates the technical review provided by Louise Anderson (World Economic Forum), MartinHaigh (Shell), Mark McGranaghan (Electric Power Research Institute), Caitlin Murphy (National RenewableEnergy Laboratory), Ola Rud (Equinor) and Bram Smeets (McKinsey & Company). Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify thereliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party contentproviders provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequenceof use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companiesor certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similarnature that are not mentioned. The designations employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression ofany opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, orconcerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. CONTENTS Abbreviations 9Units of measure10About this report11 Electrification in the global energy transition141 1.1Basic understanding of energy transitions141.2The driving forces behind the current energy transition151.3Clean electricity becomes the principal fuel in the current energy transition171.4The smart electrification transition brings numerous major benefits181.5Challenges to achieving smart electrification19 2.1Introduction222.2Electrification of end-use sectors – High-level overview of technologies, trendsand cost drivers242.3Smart electrification strategies442.4Systemic trade-offs and economic assessments – where and when do differentelectrification pathways make the most sense?57 Prospects for electrification with renewables in IRENA and China State Gridanalyses3 Key messages 3.1Electrification in IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook3.2Electrification in SGERI’s scenario study on medium- and long-term energyand power sector development in China 4.2Priorities and actions for policy makers86 Conclusion94 References96 105 Appendices I.Historical electrification trends across end-use sectors105II.Cost projections for certain key e-fuels107III.Smart charging case study summary108IV.Smart heating case study summary111V.Systemic economic assessment case study summary112VI.Global and regional scenario comparison121VII.China Scenario Study Detail130 FIGURES Figure 1Global primary energy consumption (1