XT…《经济学人》《技术颠覆的未来》

disruption in business A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit Contents About this report2Executive summary4Introduction: A decade of disruption6: Technology and business models in 20200Expert view: Clayton Christensen on innovation and disruption2Case study: Bridging the online-physical divide42: Rethinking the organisation5Expert view: Tom Standage on the future impact of social networking6Case study: Shell: new platforms for collaboration93: Jobs in 202020Expert view: Andrew McAfee - Man versus machine2Case study: A new model for the law firm244: The workplace of tomorrow25Expert view: Lynda Gratton on learning from gaming27Case study: Robotics on the rise285: The personalisation decade29Expert view: Robert Madelin on protecting the digital consumer of 202030Case study: Technology and the urban citizen33Conclusion34Appendix: Survey results35 lJack Bergstrand, founder, Brand VelocitylClayton Christensen, Kim B. Clark professor of businessadministration, Harvard Business SchoollClaire Enders, founder and analyst, Enders AnalysislBenedict Evans, analyst, Enders AnalysislLynda Gratton, professor of management practice, LondonBusiness School and founder, Hot Spots MovementlPegram Harrison, fellow in entrepreneurship, Saïd BusinessSchool, University of OxfordlMatthias Kaiserswerth, director, IBM Research - ZurichlBill Limond, chief information officer, City of LondonlRobert Madelin, director-general, information society andmedia, European CommissionlAndrew McAfee, principal research scientist, Center forDigital Business, MIT Sloan School of ManagementlGavin Michael, chief technology innovation officer,AccenturelBrian Millar, strategy director, Sense WorldwidelIan Pearson, futurologist, FuturizonlKim Polese, chairman, ClearstreetlDavid Rupert, senior manager, engineering, TimberlandlGerald Schotman, chief technology officer, Shell Agent of change: The future of technology disruption in businessis an Economist Intelligence Unit white paper, sponsored byRicoh. It reviews the impact that technology developmentswill have over the next decade on various aspects of business,including organisational structures, jobs and the workplace,customer interactions, and business models themselves. TheEconomist Intelligence Unit bears sole responsibility for thecontent of this report. The findings do not necessarily reflectthose of the sponsor. The report draws on two main research inputs for its findings: lA global survey of 567 executives, conducted in Septemberand October 20, on their expectations of the impact thattechnology will have on business between now and 2020. Allrespondents were at senior management level, with nearlyone-half (46%) from the board or C-suite. Respondentshailed from a wide range of industries, with financialservices, government and the public sector (includinghealthcare), education, professional services, technology, andmanufacturing especially prominent. Of the firms polled, 43%had annual revenue of US$500m or more. lA series of in-depth interviews with leading technology andbusiness thinkers, as well as senior executives in differentsectors. These are listed below. Our thanks are due to all survey respondents, in addition to thefollowing for providing their time and insights: Agent of Change The future of technology disruption in business lMichael Shearwood, chief executive, Aurora FashionslYaacov Silberman, co-founder and director of operations,Rimon Law GrouplCarsten Sørensen, senior lecturer, information systems andinnovation, London School of EconomicslTom Standage, digital editor,The EconomistlHans-Bernd Veltmaat, senior vice-president, manufacturingand quality, AGCO lAlberto Vilalta, executive vice-president for corporatesystems and channels, Banco Santander lWilson Wong, senior researcher, The Work Foundation James Watson is the author of this report and Denis McCauleyis the editor. Kim Thomas and Sarah Fister Gale assisted withinterviews. If one were to ask corporate leaders to list the“megatrends” that are shaping the businessworld of tomorrow, three are likely to top mostlists. One is the accelerating shift in economicpower from West to East. Another is financial-market instability and recession, at least forthose in the world’s more developed economies.The third is technological progress. Of thesethree, the last is likely to have the most directimpact on how businesses operate and how theyare organised. business leaders from across different industries.The Economist Intelligence Unit also canvasseda group of over 500 senior executives andother managers from across the world on theirexpectations of technology-led change in theyears ahead. The opinions expressed by this eminent group arecertainly not unanimous, as is to be expected.But there is a large degree of consensus onseveral of the major implications of technologydevelopment for the business world. As difficult as the task is, business leaders andtheir teams must deploy their crystal balls andthink a