阿尔巴尼亚引入正中性逆周期资本缓冲的积木式方法（英）

A Building BlockApproach for Introducinga Positive NeutralCountercyclical CapitalBuffer in Albania Maximilian Fandl, Giorgia De Nora and Eugena Topi SIP/2025/154 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on December 9, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/346. 2025DEC IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropeanDepartment A Building Block Approach for Introducing a Positive NeutralCountercyclical Capital Buffer in AlbaniaPrepared by Maximilian Fandl, Giorgia De Nora and Eugena Topi Authorized for distribution by Anke WeberDecember 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on December 9, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/346. ABSTRACT:The paper discusses the introduction of a positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) forAlbania. The building blocks present a step-by-step guide to assess preconditions to be in place. Applied to thecase of Albania, authors employ a set of methods for the calibration of a positive neutral rate, including aquantile local projection and stress-test based approach. The paper (i) finds a positive neutral CCyB regime isfeasible and net beneficial for Albania, (ii) identifies the adequate range of the positive neutral rate between100-200bps, and (iii) provides a template for emerging markets to explore positive neutral CCyB regimes. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Maximilian Fandl, Giorgia De Nora, and Eugena Topi. 2025. “A Building BlockApproach for Introducing a Positive Neutral Countercyclical Capital Buffer in Albania,” IMF Selected IssuesPaper SIP/2025/154, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS A Building Block Approach forIntroducing a Positive NeutralCountercyclical Capital Buffer inAlbania Prepared by Maximilian Fandl, Giorgia De Nora and Eugena Topi1 A BUILDING BLOCK APPROACH FOR INTRODUCING APOSITIVE NEUTRAL COUNTERCYCLICAL CAPITALBUFFER IN ALBANIA A.Introduction 1.Positive neutral Countercyclical Capital Buffers (CCyB) have seen growing adoption inrecent years.The Bank of England pioneered a CCyB framework with a positive neutral rate in 2016,and a total of 23 countries have introduced CCyB regimes with explicit cycle-neutral rates byDecember 2025. Most adopters are in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE, see Table 1)and other European countries.2 2.Positive neutral CCyBs boost resilience through higher releasable buffer requirementsover the financial cycle.In the event of macro-financial shocks, more capital is available to bereleased by the macroprudential authority, compared to the conventional “zero neutral” CCyBapproach (Adrian, 2024).International evidence, including from the COVID-19 pandemic, shows thatcountries with active releasable buffers maintained stronger bank lending and stability duringperiods of financial stress (BCBS, 2022b; Couaillier et al., 2022a, 2022b). 3.There are two key differences between a positive neutral and zero-neutral CCyB. •First, the ex-ante announced positive neutral rate provides a ‘default setting’ that servesas an anchor for bank expectations.Banks can expect the CCyB requirement to be set at thepositive neutral rate for most of the time, or above the neutral rate in case of heightened cyclicalsystemic risks. The exceptions are periods of financial stress, when the CCyB is released, andbrief recovery periods after severe stress episodes, when the rate remains below the neutral rate.Unlike in a zero-neutral regime, banks can expect the CCyB requirement to be re-raised to thepositive neutral level soon after a stress episode, irrespective of the re-emergence of cyclicalsystemic risks. •Second, a higher average CCyB rate through the cycle implies more room for bold releasesshould this be warranted.Since the positive neutral rate does not constitute a higherminimumcapital requirement but a higherbufferrequirement, banks can expect that the buffer will bereleased if cyclical systemic risk actually occur. 4.The literature does not yet provide a hands-on approach for policymakers to explore apositive neutral CCyB across all relevant dimensions.Some papers discuss the case for an explicitcycle-neutral rate (Herrera-Bravo et al, 2024, Leitner et al, 2023), without elaborating on operationaldesign considerations at the country level. The BCBS (2024) report and a joint ECB-ESRB report(2025) reflect on initial experiences of EU member states with the positive neutral CCyB, whileMiettinen and Nier (2025) provide guidance on operating a positive neutral CCyB regime throughthe cycle. 5.While Albania has advanced its macroprudential policies, the current regulatoryframework includes limited releasable buffers. Alb