探索新的地缘经济学

Forging partnerships forlasting investments Managementsummary Forging partnerships for lastinginvestments T model of investment treaties, dominant for decades, is being challenged bygeopolitical fragmentation and a surge in costly investor-state disputes. Amid This evolving environment brings significant risks and opportunities. Nationswith large portfolios of older, outdated investment treaties are particularlyexposed. These agreements – often brief, imprecise and lacking modern policy To safeguard national interests and secure economic opportunities,governments must adopt a coordinated and forward-looking strategy.Forging durable, mutually beneficial partnerships will be critical to buildinginvestment frameworks that can endure economic and political shocks. Contents An investment world in transition The new playbook for global investment The established norms that have governed cross-border investment for over half a centuryare undergoing a fundamental transformation, as the global landscape of International Historically, IIAs have taken two primary forms. Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), themost prominent class, have proliferated since the first was signed between Germany andPakistan in 1959, with more than 3,000 such agreements concluded to date. Free Trade A primary driver of the backlash against IIAs is the growth of investor-state arbitration.According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), morethan 1,200 treaty-based investment arbitration claims had been filed by foreign investors In response to litigation challenges and a changing global economy, states areredesigning investment treaties along two parallel tracks: refining traditional agreementsand exploring new models. Modernized treaties are becoming longer and more detailed Many IIAs include investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms,allowing investors to bring direct claims against host states before Simultaneously, states are using alternative agreements to complement or replace •Investment cooperation and facilitation agreements:Championed by nations like Brazil, these focus on state-to-state cooperation anddispute prevention, foregoing investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS)•Sector-specific agreements: ATerms of protection Core standards in International Investment Agreements A framework for a modern IIA strategy Making treaties fit for purpose In this complex and evolving environment, a clear strategic framework is required to guidenational policy. An effective IIA strategy must be built upon three core pillars: mitigating the PILLAR 1: Mitigating risk by modernizing the old Modernizing outdated IIAs is essential to reduce litigation risks. These older treaties often Assess the vulnerability of existing agreements The first step in managing risk is to conduct a thorough assessment of the existing treatyportfolio to identify which agreements are outdated. This is not merely a question of age but A decision framework: Renegotiate or terminate? When an agreement is identified as outdated, the choice is to either modernize it or end it.This decision should balance economic interests with legal risks, considering the scale of C Spotting the weak links D Exit or Evolve Renegotiate when there is substantial outbound investment to protect, the partner offersstrong future economic or strategic value, or high litigation risks demand the inclusion of Terminate when outbound investment is negligible, the partner's economic or strategicpotential is low, or the treaty's risks and costs clearly outweigh its limited benefits. The process of modernization Updating outdated agreements should follow a clear strategy. Termination is best donejointly to avoid "survival clauses," while renegotiations should deliver a modern treaty aligned PILLAR 2: Expanding opportunity by negotiating the new Beyond addressing legacy risks, a modern IIA strategy must also create new opportunities.This calls for a proactive, two tiered engagement framework to expand the treaty network in Strategic Partnership Track: Tailored negotiations with priority nationsn The Strategic Partnership Track focuses diplomatic and negotiation efforts on countrieswith the greatest strategic value. Selection considers alignment with national objectives, Standardized Engagement Protocol: Efficiently expanding the global network For nonpriority partners, the Standardized Engagement Protocol provides a cost efficientway to expand the treaty network. It works in three steps: develop a modern model treaty PILLAR 3: A modern IIA strategy should avoid a onesizefitsall model by matching the rightagreement type to each partner. This "full toolbox" approach draws on a range of E Beyond one-size-fits-all The path forward Seizing the momentum for IIA reform The surge in geoeconomic competition, the evolution of treaty frameworks, and the growingdetermination of states to safeguard their policy space make it essential t