能源转型的时机

Why some utilities can act today,while others must prepare for Managementsummary E well as robust balance sheets, yet ongoing participation in new generation, gridinfrastructure, storage, etc. has not proven beneficial for all. Utilities' margins have fallen Utilities' ability to drive the transformation depends on the resilience and balance oftheir portfolios, their operational performance and their financial headroom. Thus, weregularly monitor the business performance of leading European utilities to assess theirtransformational power. Independent power producers (IPPs) and integrated utilities thatonce achieved healthy margins from power generation and sales now face pressure from We analyzed the top 60 European utilities over a ten-year period, identifying eachutility's transformational power across different archetypes. Following this inaugural Contents Energy transition at risk The challenge for Europe's utilities Europe's energy markets are undergoing unprecedented change. The transformation of thecontinent's energy system demands a corresponding transformation within utilities, requiringnew business models and revised investment strategies. Utilities of every type and size – IPPs, Market volatility, evolving regulation and rapid technological change make long-termplanning increasingly difficult. For many, recent investment in new generation capacity andgrid infrastructure has not yet proven beneficial. Despite strong regulatory and subsidy At the same time, the performance of energy utilities is weakening as margins erode andbusiness models come under strain, in traditional areas such as business-to-consumer(B2C) commodity segments as well as new ventures such as electromobility. Increasing Five powerful megatrends are reshaping investment priorities, operational resilience and 01.Decarbonization and decentralization Climate change and the drive towards a low-carbon economy are creating new businessopportunities in hydrogen, storage and demand-side management. Yet the associated 02.Geopolitical tension and trade conflict Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and trade disputes are reshaping the economics ofsupply. Reliable generation and flexibility are becoming strategic priorities, but volatile 03.Technological change and digitalization Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), automation and data analytics are transformingprocesses and enabling new business models. Utilities need to expand their digital skills and 04.Shifting demand profiles and industrial load centers Electrification, e-mobility and the expansion of data centers are creating new load patterns,while industrial activity migrates towards new regional hubs. Utilities would be well advised The competitive landscape is breaking apart as new entrants – including regional players,startups and global technology companies – disrupt traditional markets with digital Together, these megatrends raise three critical questions for the sector. Which Europeanutilities have the financial and operational strength to drive the energy transition? How can The transformation gap Financial constraints across the sector In this chapter we examine utilities' transformational power – their ability to finance andexecute change in the face of Europe's energy transition. This depends on two factors: ROCE is the sector's cash engine: Higher returns create more capital to reinvest. Leverage(as net debt-to-EBITDA ratio), in turn, defines flexibility – the lower it is, the greater the BMeasuring performance Source: Capital IQ, Company information, Roland Berger Our analysis of the top 60 European utilities by revenue over the past decade shows risingfinancial pressure despite a brief recovery. Profitability remains volatile and leverage high, IPPs currently show the highest returns and the lowest leverage. Although they receivesubsidies, they are facing the full market risk, remaining highly volatile and fragile, withearnings tied more to market swings than to robust business models. Integrated utilitiesperform more steadily thanks to diversified operations, positioning their business model as To quantify a utility's ability to fund and execute transformation, we use the Roland BergerTransformation Indicator. This metric combines ROCE and leverage to assess how much Tracking utilities' Transformation Indicators over the past five years reveals that most ofEurope's leading players exhibit weak transformational power. The reasons vary acrossbusiness models. Grid operators, for example, tend to have relatively low scores – despite When mapping the top 60 European utilities against a target ROCE of more than eightpercent and a maximum leverage ratio of 3.5 – representing the conditions under whichutilities can typically secure financing from traditional lenders – it becomes clear that Median Roland Berger Transformation Indicator Four archetypes From transformation powerhouses to restricted laggards Toprovide concrete strategic g