人力资本对当前和未来增长的贡献：世界银行长期增长模型（LTGM-HC）的扩展

11276 The Contribution of Human Capitalto Current and Future Growth An Extension of the World Bank’s Long-TermGrowth Model (LTGM-HC) Arthur MendesSteven Pennings Development Research Group &Prosperity Chief Economist’s OfficeDecember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper112276 Abstract This paper presents the Long-Term Growth Model–HumanCapital Extension (LTGM-HC), a spreadsheet-based tool-kit that projects the human capital of the workforce from2025 to 2100 for 153 countries. The LTGM-HC simulatespre-tertiary years of schooling, education quality, and healthacross age cohorts and how they affect current and futureworkforce productivity. The paper also produces three setsof general results. First, it provides new estimates of the cur-rent rate of human capital growth, which differ substantiallyfrom those in the Penn World Tables. Global average humancapital growth is almost 1 percent and is surprisingly similaracross income groups, as greater historical gains in yearsof schooling in poorer countries are offset by lower initialschool quality. Second, it provides new estimates of the paceof future human capital growth. Without future reforms, average human capital growth will slow by around 0.15-0.2percentage points per decade, hitting zero by 2080 whentoday’s children begin to retire. In contrast, a scenario witha typical pace of reform almost halves the rate of decline.Finally, it provides new estimates of the contribution ofhuman capital to current and future economic growth. Ina typical reform scenario, human capital growth is projectedto raise annual GDP per capita growth by around half apercentage point over the next 75 years, leaving GDP percapita 45 percent higher by 2100. However, about two-thirds of these gains reflect reforms that have already beenenacted. An extension to include tertiary education raiseshuman capital growth, and its contribution to GDP growth,by around 0.1-0.2 percentage points. This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics and the Office of the ChiefEconomist, Prosperity Vertical. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research andmake a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also postedon the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at agalegomendes@worldbank.org andspennings@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The Contribution of Human Capital to Current and Future Growth:An Extension of the World Bank’s Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM-HC)1 Arthur Mendes and Steven Pennings2 1.Introduction Human capitalis a key driver of economic growth, accounting for between 20% and60% ofcross-countrydifferencesindevelopment and growth(Caselli 2005;Schoellman 2012;Jones2016;Hendricks and Schoellman 2018;Gethin 2025).3Despite its importance, there are fewestimates of the growth rate ofhuman capitaland its contribution to current and futureproductivity (and GDP) forindividualdeveloping countries, and also howthesewill be affectedbyalternativereform scenariosineducation and health. This is crucial not only for understandingthe future growth trajectories in developing countries, but also for policymakers seeking tocompare the growth impacts of alternative policies.This paperfills this gapby introducinga new,publicly available, spreadsheet-based tool to facilitate human capitalsimulations: theLong-Term Growth Model Human Capital Extension(LTGM-HC, downloadable fromwww.worldbank.org/LTGM). This tool is designed to convertfuture paths ofpre-tertiary schooling attainment, education quality and health into paths ofhuman capitalgrowth of the workforce from 2025 to 2100 with built-indata for 153 countries.Human capitalgrowth of the workforce is important because it determines how much moreproductive workers becomedue to their health and education, and is a key input into neoclassicalgrowth models, including the standard World Bank LTGM ofLoayza and Pennings (2022).Whilemany of the concepts and data underlying ourmeasure of human ca