2028 年的竞选已经开始。这就是目前的领先者。

White House hopefuls in both parties are maneuvering for the post-Trump era. Here’s where they stand at the end of 2025.两党中觊觎⽩宫⼤位的政治⼈物都在为后特朗普时代做布局。以下是截⾄2025年底他们各⾃的处境。 B y B I L L S C H E R作者：B I L L S C H E R1 2 / 2 8 / 2 0 2 5 1 0 : 0 0 A M E S T Bill Scher is a contributing writer to Politico Magazine, the politics editor for theWashington Monthly and co-host of “The DMZ,” an online show and podcast withconservative writer Matt Lewis. Bill Scher是《Politico》杂志的特约撰稿⼈、《华盛顿⽉刊》的政治编辑，也是线上节⽬和播客《The DMZ》的联合主持⼈，该节⽬与保守派作家Matt Lewis共同制作。 The Trump Organization may sell Trump 2028 hats, but even PresidentDonald Trump bowed to the Constitution and acknowledged earlier this monththat he would not be the next Republican presidential nominee: “It’s not goingto be me.” 特朗普集团或许会出售“特朗普2028”帽⼦，但就连唐纳德·特朗普总统也向宪法低头，并在本⽉早些时候承认⾃⼰不会成为下⼀位共和党总统候选⼈：“不会是我。” It’s clear to everyone that the jockeying for presidential primary position in thepost-Trump era — in both major parties — has already begun. Ambitiouscontenders are seizing on book deals, magazine profiles, podcast appearances, policy pronouncements and more than a few low-key beefs to find the spotlightand try to elbow into what will be a crowded race. 显⽽易见，在后特朗普时代——两⼤党皆然——围绕总统初选席位的⾓逐早已开始。雄⼼勃勃的潜在⼈选正借助出书、杂志专访、播客露⾯、政策表态以及不乏低调的争端来吸引聚光灯，试图在注定拥挤的竞赛中挤进前排。 So which potential 2028ers jockeyed the best in 2025? 那么，哪些潜在的2028年参选者在2025年的⾓逐中表现最佳？ In the spirit of this year’s “FIFA Peace Prize — Football Unites theWorld”award delivered to Trump, POLITICO Magazine is ready to bestowtrophies on some of the likeliest presidential contenders. Here are theDemocrats and Republicans eyeing the White House who spent the past yearmaneuvering — some better than others. 借鉴今年授予特朗普的“国际⾜联和平奖——⾜球团结世界”的精神，POLITICO杂志准备向⼀些最有可能⾓逐总统⼤位的⼈颁发奖杯。以下是过去⼀年⾥积极布局⽩宫之路的民主党⼈与共和党⼈——有的⼈做得更好⼀些，有的⼈则不然。 Let the ceremony commence! 颁奖典礼现在开始！ “攻击⽝”荣誉勋章 CALIFORNIA GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM 加利福尼亚州州⻓加⽂·纽森 In 2025, sometimes Gavin Newsom made Democrats mad. Sometimes GavinNewsom made Democrats exhilarated. But more than any other potentialDemocratic presidential candidate, Gavin Newsom made Democrats thinkabout Gavin Newsom. 在2025年，有时加⽂·纽森会让民主党⼈感到恼⽕。有时，加⽂·纽森又让民主党⼈兴奋不已。但相⽐任何其他潜在的民主党总统候选⼈，加⽂·纽森最能让民主党⼈不断地去思考加⽂·纽森本⼈。 He made them mad when he invited the late conservative activist Charlie Kirkon his podcast and said “I completely agree with you” on barring transgenderwomen from competing in women’s sports. Ditto for when Newsom was askedin April about the erroneous deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia in flagrantviolation of a court order; he downplayed it as “the distraction of the day” andsuggested Democrats should resist talking about immigration because it’s an“80-20 issue” for Republicans. 当他邀请已故的保守派活动家查理·柯克做客⾃⼰的播客，并在是否禁⽌跨性别⼥性参加⼥⼦体育⽐赛的问题上说出“我完全同意你”这句话时，他让民主党⼈感到愤怒。再⽐如，4⽉有⼈问及基尔马尔·阿布雷⼽·加西亚被错误驱逐、且公然违反法院命令⼀事时，纽森将其淡化为“当天的⼲扰因素”，并暗⽰民主党⼈应当避免谈论移民问题，因为这在共和党那⾥是⼀个“80⽐20”的议题。 But many Democrats thrilled to his adoption of a bombastic social mediastrategy that walked a fine line between parodying and emulating Trump. Andhe delighted partisans by jumping into the redistricting war Trump started,successfully convincing California voters to pass a ballot initiative suspendingthe state’s independent redistricting commission and redrawing district lines tofavor Democratic candidates. 但许多民主党⼈对他采⽤⼀种夸张的社交媒体策略感到兴奋，这种策略在戏仿和模仿特朗普之间⾛钢丝。他还积极投⾝于特朗普挑起的重新划分选区之战，成功说服加州选民通过⼀项投票倡议，暂停该州的独⽴选区重划委员会，并重新划定选区界线，以利于民主党候选⼈。 The net result of all of Newsom’s frenetic activity is that, despite being based3,000 miles away from Washington, Newsom has unofficially achieved thestatus of the party’s chief attack dog — and arguable2028 Democratic frontrunner. 所有这些马不停蹄的⾏动带来的最终结果是：尽管纽森⾝在距离华盛顿3000英⾥的地⽅，他却已经⾮正式地获得了党内⾸席“攻击⽝”的地位——⽽且可以说还是2028年民主党总统候选⼈的领跑者。 The proof is in the polls, in which Newsom is the only potential Democraticnominee who has shown clear momentum. During the first five months of theyear, Newsom was mired in single digits. Since then, he’s consistently earneddouble-digit support and has led polls sampled byYahoo/YouGov,EmersonCollegeandAtlasIntel. 证据就在民调之中：纽森是唯⼀⼀位展现出明确上升势头的潜在民主党提名⼈。今年前五个⽉，纽森还徘徊在个位数⽀持率。⾃那以后，他始终保持两位数的⽀持率，并在由Yahoo/YouGov、埃默森学院和AtlasIntel进⾏的民调中领先。 Intra-Party Instigator of the Year年度党内内⽃煽动者 FORMER VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS 前副总统卡⻢拉·哈⾥斯 Kamala Harris had a busy year, writing and promoting her 2024 campaignmemoir107 Days, which quickly became aNew York Timesbest-seller andsold more than 600,000 copies. Her book tour was a success too; as theNewYork Timesobserved, “Only two politicians in America have pulled offnationwide tours this year andpacked so many venues” — Sen. Bernie Sandersand Harris. 卡马拉·哈⾥斯度过了忙碌的⼀年，撰写并宣传她的2024年竞选回忆录《107天》，该书迅速登上《纽约时报》畅销书榜，并售出超过60万册。她的图书巡回宣传同样取得成功；正如《纽约时报》所指出的那样：“今年在美国，只有两位政治⼈物成功举⾏了全国巡回活动，并在如此多的场地座⽆虚席”——参议员伯尼·桑德斯和哈⾥斯。 Yet the former vice president saw her potential 2028 standing ebb. In the firsteight 2028 primary polls sampled this year, Harris led in six, averaging 27percent share of support. In the last eigh