国际货币基金组织支持的撒哈拉以南非洲地区计划中的社会支出目标

AFRICAN DEPARTMENT Social Spending Targets inIMF-Supported Programsin Sub-Saharan Africa Prepared by an IMF team led by Frederic Lambert, composedof Ghislain Afavi, Vaishali Ashtakala, Irena Jankulov Suljagic,Pedro Juca Maciel, Myrto Oikonomou, Johanna Tiedemann,Luc Tucker, and Arina Viseth. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AFRICAN DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENTAL PAPERSocial Spending Targets in IMF-Supported Programs Prepared by an IMF team led by Frederic Lambert,composed of Ghislain Afavi, Vaishali Ashtakala,Irena Jankulov Suljagic, Pedro Juca Maciel, Myrto Oikonomou,Johanna Tiedemann, Luc Tucker, and Arina Viseth. Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names: Lambert, Frederic Jean, author. | Afavi, Ghislain, author. | Ashtakala, Vaishali, author. |Jankulov Suljagic, Irena, author. | Juca Maciel, Pedro, author. | Oikonomou, Myrto, author. |Tiedemann, Johanna, author. | Tucker, Luc, author. | Viseth, Arina, author. | International Monetary Fund, Title: Social spending targets in IMF-supported programs in Sub-Saharan Africa / Prepared by an IMF teamled by Frederic Lambert, composed of Ghislain Afavi, Vaishali Ashtakala, Irena Jankulov Suljagic, Pedro Juca Maciel, Myrto Oikonomou, Johanna Tiedemann, Luc Tucker, and Arina VisethOther titles: Social spending targets in International Monetary Fund supported programs in Sub-Saharan Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2025. | Mon. 2025. | Includes bibliographicalreferences. Identifiers: ISBN: 9798229014595(paper)9798229015998(ePub)9798229015943(WebPDF) Subjects: LCSH: Government spending policy—Sub-Saharan Africa. |International Monetary Fund—Economic assistance—Sub-Saharan Africa. | Conditionality (Internation relations)—Sub-Saharan Africa. AcknowledgmentsThe authors are grateful for comments and suggestions provided by Ali Abbas, Isabell Adenauer, Omer Akbal, Matthieu Bellon, Nicolo Bird, Fernanda Brollo, Felipe Camêlo, Wenjie Chen, Costas Christou,Mariana Colacelli, Pavis Devahasadin, Luc Eyraud, Claire Gicquel, Matt Grieger, Iacovos Ioannou, Pablo LopezMurphy, Montfort Mlachila, Catherine Pattillo, Jesmin Rahman, Nagwa Riad, Jennifer Ribarsky, Lisbeth Rivas,Cemile Sancak, Axel Schimmelpfennig, Martin Schindler, Abebe Selassie, Andrew Tiffin, Petia Topalova,Olaf Unteroberdoerster, Delia Velculescu, Mercedes Vera Martin, Genevieve Verdier, Jaroslaw Wieczorek, and The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or cross-country interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily Publication orders may be placed online or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USA Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vAcronyms and Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vi1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 2. Social Spending Targets in Sub-Saharan Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 A. More Programs with Social Spending Targets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3B. Mostly Indicative Targets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4C. Growing Coverage of Social Protection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4D. Increasingly Specific Target Definitions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 3. The Effect of Social Spending Targets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 A. High Target Completion Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14B. No Decline in Health and Education Spending Over the Courseof IMF-Supported Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15C. Targets Are Effective at Protecting Social Spending during Fiscal Consolidations. . . . . . .