撒哈拉以南非洲的作物生产力：研究与开发的作用

Crop Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role Christian Ebeke and Mireille Ntsama Etoundi WP/25/249 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are DEC2025 IMF Working PaperAfrican Department Prepared byChristian Ebeke1and Mireille Ntsama Etoundi Authorized for distribution by Mr. Schimmelpfennig IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper provides new cross-country evidence that greater investment in agricultural R&Dsignificantly mitigates the adverse effects of climate variability on crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa. Despitethis critical role, only a handful of countries have invested at levels sufficient to reach the thresholds whereR&D delivers effective risk adaptation. Our analysis indicates that closing this gap would require an additional WORKING PAPERS CropProductivity in Sub-SaharanAfrica: The Role of Research and Prepared byChristian Ebekeand Mireille Ntsama Etoundi Contents I.Introduction............................................................................................................................................5 A.Baseline Specification..................................................................................................................9B.Baseline Results........................................................................................................................13 A.Alternative Measures of Rainfall Instability................................................................................15B.Dynamic Panel Data Estimates..................................................................................................17C.Use of Temperature Data...........................................................................................................19 V.Extensions.....................................................................................................................................21 A. Aggregating the Main Dampening Factors into a Synthetic Index of Agric Resilience to ClimateShocks...................................................................................................................................................21B. ASTI Gaps.........................................................................................................................................23 VI.Conclusion....................................................................................................................................24 References..................................................................................................................................................25 FIGURES 1.Sub-Saharan Africa: Rainfall and Crop Yield Instability....................................................................92.Sub-Saharan Africa: Rainfall and Crop Yield Instability if Agri Innovation is Low...........................103.Sub-Saharan Africa: Rainfall and Crop Yield Instability if Agri Innovation is High..........................104.Sub-Saharan Africa: Crop Yield and Crop Yield Instability.............................................................115.Global Spending on Agriculatural Research...................................................................................126.Agricultural Research Spending by Country...................................................................................13 1.Impact of Rainfall Variability on Crop Yield Variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: OLS with FixedEffects Estimates............................................................................................................................142.Impact of Rainfall Instability on Crop Yield Variability: Alternative Measures of Rainfall Instability163.Impact of Climate Variability on Crop Yield Variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Dynamic GMM I.Introduction It is well accepted that a key driver of poverty reduction in Africa is agricultural sector growth. Christiaensenet al.(2011) show that agriculture is significantly effective in reducing poverty among the poorest of thepoor. Despite its importance, agriculture is being challenged in Africa on several fronts. Productivity is verylow,reflecting a conjunction of factors ranging from the large prevalence of smallholders (more than 60 This paper focuses on the adverse effect ofrainfallinstability on the African agricultural sector. Increasingclimateuncertaintyhasbeen identified as one of the key drivers behind the recent rise in global hungerand a leading cause of severe food crises (FAO, 2018). The impact of climate change on Africa is likely tobe severe(Barrios et al., 2008)due toitshigh agricultural dependence and the limited capacity to adapt According tothe Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),