被困在中间吗？印尼收入动态评估

Stuck in the Middle withYou? An Assessment ofIncome Dynamics inIndonesia Florischa Ayu Tresnatri, Akbar Nikmatullah Dachlan, Galuh ChandraWibowo, and Rifat Pasha WP/25/265 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025DEC IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Stuck in the Middle with You? An Assessmentof Income Dynamicsin IndonesiaPrepared byFlorischaAyuTresnatri,AkbarNikmatullahDachlan, Galuh Chandra Wibowo, and RifatPasha Authorized for distribution by Maria GonzalezDecember 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:The middle class can play a pivotal role as a growth driver in achieving Indonesia’sGolden Visionof becoming a high-income country by 2045. However, it remains narrow, at under 20 percent of the totalpopulation. It is also highly vulnerable, given a waning purchasing power, and unfavorable labor marketdynamics. In contrast with the steady progress of the bottom half of the income distribution, the middle-classshare has declined since 2019, driven, inter alia, by labor market shifts toward informality, falling real incomes,pandemic scarring. Reversing this trajectory requires broad-based structural reforms focused on revitalizingprivate-sector led growth, including investment to create formal sector jobs, aligning education with labor marketneeds and develop skills to raise economic sophistication, and enhancing productivity and resilience. Reformsthat enhance the ease of doing business, such as reducing regulatory barriers and uncertainty and improvinggovernance, can help facilitate convergence to high-income status and benefit the middle class. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Tresnatri, F.A., Dachlan, A.N., Wibowo, G.C., and Pasha, R.2025. “Stuck in theMiddle with You? An Assessment of Income Dynamics in Indonesia”, IMF Working Paper, International MonetaryFund, Washington, D.C. Stuck in the Middle with You? AnAssessment of Income Dynamicsin Indonesia Prepared byFlorischaAyuTresnatri,AkbarNikmatullahDachlan,GaluhChandra Wibowo, and Rifat Pasha0F1 Contents A.Motivation...............................................................................................................................................1B.The Evolution of the Middle-Class.......................................................................................................2C.Indonesia’s Middle-Class Characteristics at National and Provincial Level...................................5D.The Drivers of Middle Class Dynamics.............................................................................................15E.Empirical Analysis for the Determinants of Middle-Class...............................................................18F.Conclusions.........................................................................................................................................21 Box 1. GovernmentSupportsto the Middle Class................................................................................................6 FIGURES Figure 1. World Bank and BPS Classification.......................................................................................................2Figure 2. OECD Classification..............................................................................................................................2Figure 3. Economic Classes in Indonesia.............................................................................................................3Figure 4. World Bank and BPS Classification.......................................................................................................3Figure 5. OECD Classification Calculation............................................................................................................3Figure 6. Middle Class in Peer Countries..............................................................................................................4Figure 7. Middle Class in the U.S..........................................................................................................................4Figure 8. Contribution to Total Consumption........................................................................................................5Figure 9. Growth Incidence Curve........................................................................................................................5Figure 10. Lorenz Curve.....................................................................................................................................