逆向法：一种间接的增值税合规缺口估算技术

N O T E S&M A N U A L SN O T E S&M A N U A L S The Reverse Method: A NewIndirect Technique for Global VATCompliance Gap Monitoring Patricio Barra and Polina Prokof’yeva TECHNICAL NOTES AND MANUALS The Reverse Method: A NewIndirect Technique for Global VATCompliance Gap Monitoring Patricio Barra and Polina Prokof’yevaAuthorized for distribution by Ruud de Mooij Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names: Barra, Patricio, author. | Prokof’yeva, Polina, author. | International Monetary Fund, publisher.Title: The reverse method : an indirect VAT compliance gap estimation technique / Patricio Barra andPolina Prokof’yeva Other titles: An indirect VAT compliance gap estimation technique. | Technical notes & manuals.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2025. | Dec. 2025. | TNM 2025-15. | Includesbibliographical references. Subjects: LCSH: Value-added tax. | Tax administration and procedure. Classification: HJ5711.B1 2025 DISCLAIMER: This Technical Guidance Note should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The viewsexpressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of theIMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Recommended citation:Barra, Patricio, and Polina Prokof’yeva. 2025. “The Reverse Method: A New Indirect Technique for GlobalVAT Compliance Gap Monitoring.” IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2025/15, International MonetaryFund, Washington, DC. Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesPO Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel: (202) 623-7430 | Fax: (202) 623-7201publications@IMF.orgeLibrary.IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.org Contents Abbreviations1 I.Motivation and Scope A. Direct versus Indirect Estimation Techniques3B. What Can an Indirect Technique Be Useful For?4 III.RA-GAP Reverse Method: Accounting Identity A. C-efficiency and Reverse MethodB. C-efficiency in Practice 55 IV.RA-GAP Reverse Method: Calibrated Estimation Model A. A Prior StepB. Estimation StrategyC. Reasonability of Proxies for the VariablesD. Calibrating Predictions through the RME. Out-of-Sample Predictions 7891114 V.Results on VAT Compliance Global Trends16 A. Applying the Reverse MethodB. Results in Selected CountriesC. VAT Compliance Gap Trends by Income LevelD. VAT Compliance Gap Trends by Region 16161818 VI.Limitations and Caveats VII.Conclusions Appendix 1. Synthesis of Variables Appendix 2. Standard RA-GAP Assessment Mission Appendix 3. Applying the Reverse Method’s Accounting Approach under aCountry-Specific Purpose 24 References Abbreviations AEadvanced economyAFRAfricaAPDAsia and PacificC-efficiencyfinal consumption-efficiencyEMEemerging market economyEUEuropean UnionEUREuropeFADFiscal Affairs DepartmentFCfinal consumptionGDPgross domestic productIMFInternational Monetary FundLIDClow-income developing countryMCDMiddle East and Central AsiaRA-GAPRevenue Administration Gap Analysis ProgramRMReverse MethodTADATTax Administration Diagnostic Assessment ToolVATvalue-added taxWHDWestern Hemisphere I. Motivation and Scope Tax noncompliance is not directly observable (that is, taxpayers do not disclose their true underreporting),so different statistical techniques must be used to estimate it. This means that establishing the exact valueof the compliance gap is impossible, a limitation shared with other disciplines, where the concept of an“accurate measure” must be nuanced toward reasonable, comparable, and consistent estimates.1Despitethe limitations, the compliance gap estimations provide enormous value to ministries of finance, revenueadministrations, and the public by providing data on uncollected tax revenue because of noncompliance,highlighting the potential for improved resource mobilization through better tax administration. In this context, several countries estimate the compliance gap using different approaches and techniques,continuously seeking to improve the quality of source data, assumptions, and replicability (as illustratedin the next section of this note). However, as already indicated, in many cases the need to compare theseresults with others obtained through comparable but alternative approaches persists. At the same time,collecting comparable results from other countries is also essential, though this is an enormous challengegiven the scope of the task and inherent limits of the achievable comparability. The IMF’s Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) has developed a relatively well-knownestimation methodology that has already been applied in more than 45 countries since 2015.2The RA-GAPprogram is considered a robust method because it uses a clear conceptual framework, reliable official data,and a transparent, internationally recognized methodology. Above all, it applies the same estimation modelacross countries, ensuring a high level of international comparability. Nevertheless, for reasons of cost andfeasibility, taking this approach every year for all coun