铁矿石“61%时代”正在开启

The Dawn of the "61% Era" for Iron Ore铁矿石“61%时代”正在开启 徐轲Xu Ke从业资格号Qualification No.：F3123846投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0019914桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No.：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Abstract摘要 Since the early 21st century, as a basic industrial raw material, the pricing mechanism of iron orehas undergone several key evolutions. From the withdrawal of the early annual long-term agreementnegotiationmechanism to the spot index pricing model becoming the mainstream,eachtransformation has profoundly affected the profit distribution of the industrial chain. Today, the globaliron ore market is ushering in a new round of adjustment to the pricing system: the long-dominant62% iron grade benchmark is gradually transitioning to the 61% iron grade standard, marking thedawn of the "61% era" in the iron ore market. The long-dominant 62% iron grade benchmark in the global iron ore market is gradually shiftingto 61%. As mining advances in key Pilbara mines, PBF's iron grade has trended downward, leavingthe existing 62% benchmark prone to deviations in reflecting mainstream spot. To adapttosuchchanges, Platts and SGX have rolled out adjustment plans, potentially pushing down far-monthcontract prices (starting Jan 2026) due to the lower underlying benchmark grade. Market participantsshould focus on Platts' "61/62% Fe TransitionalBasis" during the transition and use this tool tomanage pricing gap risks in intertemporal transactions for a smooth strategy shift. Risks:Weak end-demand leads to declining profitability and increased maintenance of steelenterprises; policies such as crude steel production regulation and carbon emissions are negative forore demand (downside risk);Policy-driven demand stimulus measuresboostthe overall demandintheferrousmetal industrial chain (upside risk). 自本世纪初以来，铁矿石作为基础工业原料，其定价机制经历了数次关键演变。从早期年度长协谈判机制的退出，到现货指数定价模式成为主流，每次转变都深刻影响了产业链的利润分配。如今，全球铁矿石市场正迎来新一轮定价体系调整：长期主导的62%铁品位基准正逐步向61%铁品位标准过渡，标志着铁矿石市场“61%时代”正在开启。 随着皮尔巴拉地区核心矿区的开采进程深入，PBF的铁品位已呈现出下滑的趋势，原有的62%基准在描述市场主流现货时易出现偏差。为适应这一现货变化，普氏和新交所均推出了调整方案，或导致远月合约（2026年1月起）因标的物基准品位下调而出现价格回落。市场参与者需重点关注普氏在过渡期内发布的“61/62% Fe过渡基差价差”，并利用该工具管理跨期交易中的定价断层风险，确保策略平稳过渡。 风险提示：终端需求疲弱导致钢企盈利下降、检修增加；粗钢产量调控、碳排放等政策利空矿石需求（下行风险）；政策端释放刺激需求利好，提振黑色产业链整体需求（上行风险）。 Related Reports报告推荐* Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read 20240207 China Iron Ore Futures Framework中国铁矿石期货研究框架20250114 China Iron Ore Futures Cross-Border Arbitrage Framework中国铁矿石期货跨境套利框架20250701 Risk Management Application of China Iron Ore Futures for Industrial中国铁矿石期货在企业风险管理中的应用20240808China Steels Research Framework中国钢材产业研究框架20251031 China Metal Futures Arbitrage Framework中国钢材套利框架20250924Risk Management Application of China Steel Futures中国钢材期货风险管理应用 Content目录 1.The "61% Era" of Iron Ore is Dawning......................................................................4 2. Mainstream Mines’ Grade Reduction Drives Index Benchmark Adjustment.............5 2.1 Grade Reduction of Rio Tinto’s Flagship Product......................................................................................................52.2 Sharp Contraction of Vale’s High-Grade IOCJ Output and Overall Quality Decline.............................................62.3 FMG and Other Australian Mines Also Show Grade Reduction Trends.................................................................62.4 Structural Rise in Silicon and Aluminum Impurity Content.......................................................................................7 3. Index Adjustments by Platts and SGX............................................................................7 3.1 Platts IODEX Index Change.........................................................................................................................................73.2 Adjustments to Derivatives Contracts of the Singapore Exchange (SGX)...........................................................10 Appendix: Chinese Version................................................................................................12 2.主流矿山降品驱动指数基准调整.......................................................................................12 2.1力拓旗舰产品PBF铁品位下调...................................................................................................................................132.2 Vale高品IOCJ产量大幅收缩，整体品质下行.........................................................................................................132.3 FMG和澳洲其他矿山同样有降品趋势.......................................................................................................................142.4硅、铝杂质含量的结构性上升....................................................................................................................................14 3.普氏与新交所指数调整......................................................................................................14 3.1普氏（Platts）IODEX指数变更............................................................