Blayne's Bytes：论博通及2026年展望

USAISemiconductors Blayne's Bytes:Addressing AVGO,2026OutlookMU Reads Market volatility persisted this week with Al narTes pulling back further. AVGOspecifically was the center of attention with concerns focused around cOTrisks and margins. We believe these CoT concerns are misplaced anc expectsertiment to reverse in the new year with AvGC still our Top Pick. MU's beat inthe face of lofty expectetions stands as the lelest confirrmation of Al dermandfar outpacing supply. Looking forward to CES in the New Year! Happy Holidays!! Addressing the AVGO COT Concerns: AvCOI sel-off sontinuzcl this week vith concerrs buidingCoWe:S in 2027 ss yel ancti1r bard tatis point). On this point, we: vo.l: say G:ogle's COT :esirts are:nothing nev and we zre skepticsl ths1 this MTK cnip will see 2ny resl voiurme. We view it 8s 3 siceprcject to tes: MTK's Serdes and ve vrsuid nighligit that it's 3 generation behinc the vB chip AVGOIs working on (4-reticle et 2nm vs tihe derive.tive chip some are callng fcr). The demend for cest-ircl3ss IP (Serles, die to-die Intarocnnect neticls-limited packag ng. 8() stacking srchitesture, otc.).and teshnical expertise are bcooming even more critical Al this comes at a time when a setasckor eve1 S rncnths relatve Io NVDA xr othersi could cause itreparable haTm Ia GCOG's busiressAvGO believes they are 8 years sheed cf MTK snd see the traction o' v7x only reinforcirg the needfer Gsogle te push the ASIC roacmap. We believe the Meta ard OAl ASIC (pragrams remain cnIrterestingly, the Zt:GWs from CA) scros3 NVDA/AVCO/AMU seems to be hesvily ciscoUntcd byth: invzster tese, edsirg arother driver if Cal's access to cepiteal hecomes cleargr 2026 Semis Outlook Tripling Down on Al, Semi Cap Equipment Cycle Strong: For tihe thrird yearde) sadfi, pus iu e(Jul G) tas sOS )M, sno, so JD tEua, sos ( 'vG E L!continuing to accelerate. AVGC remsins cur Top Pick offering significant upside poteritisl wit1 oubott:om-p estim9tes 3uggesting C27 EFS of $20+ vs. St. st $14.84, NvD/ slso one of our favoriteat an etrective valuetken of 17x our bctom up c27 EFS of >$10. For Seml-Cac, ve ralsed curWF= estimates drrven by improved otook for lesdng-edge ard memory. Upgraced KLAC to BUYreflcrting strorg:r n.tlnnk fer la:tirg-rrdgr and p:ckaging drivrn hy Al-rlatrrdl spcndling AMATrcrain; cur fivrit: cf tr: grou givr disurtt vti μirs. Rotatixrl intp Arakag is ipcaling duclo lever inleresl ra.es bul we're coniceried this rndy he a prernialure reat:tion ib rnxtesl earings/rmid-qusrter raises. Faverites cf the group re ADl & MTS on belter busness mix 8nic DC upsice.Please find our full 2026 Outlook rote HETE and a repl8y of cur Webinsr discuEing next yesrsoutlook E 0AI Potential AMZN Partnership: Repors this wcck sJggsst AVZN coulc iwest S10B+ InCponAl with dcsl pptrcntialy inr:ludins acrcss to Tranium chins and erticrships in occmmcrre/en.errise Al. e vew this as s rrodeslly pccitive ressd (or tfre Trainiurn erosyslem bul. mroreimeurtantly another bulish demsn signal as Oal works to secure as nuch compute 2s possibie.Ir our Relrverit note HERE, we fiote that slthnough Trn3 2erfermanee looks bet.er relat've to pastenerations, overal perfcrmence still trails other solut ons. The response to the snrouncemert.mutecl perfcrmence frcm Trenium-leverec MRvL and ALAB, speaks to the limited apetite for Aaxposur as w transiton into year-end. We cortinue to telieve Al outperforms in (26 and kokto Blar:kvwel-trsins: moriels likely to be released in early C26 as potent al catalysts te hel1 pet theIrade tack cr (ra:k. Blayne Curtis * [Equity Analyst Kevin Garigan * | Equity Analyst+ (212)/ 254-2817 1gcmg=n3,c7en=3.067 (2171 344-18:0 eeenerSjefferes.com Crawford Clarke, CFA * 1Equity Associate+1 (212; 836 7a39 1clorke2$4cffgries.com Alex Fernandez * [Equity Associate+1 (212; 778-8731 /af:manccz1(8ke*crics.cm Jefferies Reads from MU Eamings Memory Demand off the Charts: IV/(U (uncovened; e/Ting crove shsreshigher af:er forward guidsnoe repcrted significently above expecteticns (S18.78 vs St S14. 5B); tied to( o p e 2 e ss pe.: oiqFuioddns 'va,A ojid ;c pesqa sita g (ezo ul 8sEs s4) szo fn 00oLs Jo Wv_ WuH peiFpein tE pe.e],cuaucGeLew 1soGins amo puuus puauino utyr ounoid o)og jgeiapsuoo 2 uc put putugfaster grewth for betn GPUs n ASlCs. For Capex, MU rsised F26 stimstes to $2UB vs. Streeestimates for S19.5B but celow some whisper estimates for S225. That ssic, accelerate (deh fa2timelire (Mid27 vs 2H27 prior) and snticipeted F27 Cacex upt ck sound positve for Seml-ca) namesin our ocverage, espesially URAV-levered nemes lke AMAT Reads from NAND Industry Sector Momentum Intact but Monitoring Spot Trends: NAN[1 outlockrensins heathy as MU showed solird Q2F25 Guide: sitirecord NAND revenue inQ1F26 as anindusiry.tit shiprner; oould be linited as sup:liers lise Sarsurng and Other Koresri Merncry Verdar wor< Icupgrace existing fabs, but overall dern2nd appears beter. MU roted bit shipments gren +M/HSDStuses pese unuswsu BuoJd 'sCssa Joy pue