煤炭2025分析与预测至2030

Analysis and forecast to 2030 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAAssociationcountries: IEAMembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Coal is a cornerstone of electricity generation in many countries as well as the singlelargest source of carbon dioxide emissions globally, placing it at the centre ofinternational dialogues on energy. At a time of uncertainty and change for energysystems around the world, a range of different trends could shape coal markets inthe years ahead. On one hand, recent policy changes supporting coal could drive consumption higher,as could surging electricity demand in economies across the world, since two-thirdsof global coal use today is for power generation. On the other hand, the rapidexpansion of renewable energy capacity – particularly in China, the world’s biggestcoal consumer – has the potential to curb demand. At the same time, the comingwave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, which is likely to bring moreabundant supplies and lower prices to natural gas markets, could prompt someregions to favour gas over coal. Coal 2025– the latest annual market report from the International Energy Agency(IEA) – explores the implications of these key developments and more. Drawing onthe latest data, it analyses recent trends and provides forecasts through 2030 forcoal demand, supply and trade by grade and region. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This International Energy Agency (IEA) publication has been prepared by the Gasand Coal Markets Division (GCM), headed by Dennis Hesseling, who provideduseful suggestions and comments throughout the process. Keisuke Sadamori,Director of Energy Markets and Security, provided essential guidance. CarlosFernández Alvarez led and co-ordinated the analysis. Hendrik Diers, StephanTerhorst and Carlos Fernández Alvarez are the authors of the report. AyaDarwash is the main author of chapter 5. An essential input for this report is the electricity forecast provided by Eren Çamand his team. Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions, includingHeymi Bahar, Stephanie Bouckaert, Marc Casanovas, Joel Couse, Laura Cozzi,Carole Etienne, Mathilde Fajardy, Víctor García Tapia, Tim Gould, Timur Gül,Ciarán Healy, Milosz Karpinski, Martin Küppers, Akos Losz, Gergely Molnár, JohnMoloney, Arnau Rísquez Martín and Frederick Ritter. Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were fundamentalto the report. Thanks go to Zuzana Dobrotkova for her invaluable support.Thanksalso go to the IEA China desk, particularly Rebecca McKimm, for their researchon China. The IEA Communication and Digital Office (CDO) provided production and launchsupport. Particular thanks go to Jethro Mullen, Head of CDO, and his team: AstridDumond, Julia Horowitz, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Liv Gaunt. Justin French-Brooks edited the report. Our gratitude goes to the Institute of Energy Economics at the University ofCologne (EWI) for sharing their extensive coal expertise and modelling insights. CRU provided invaluable data and information for this report. Thanks to GlenKurokawa and Jonathan Loh for their support and suggestions. Our gratitude goes to the IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB) for its support. Special thanks go to the international experts who provided input during theprocess and/or reviewed the draft of the report. They include: José Alfaro (CoreResources), Randall Atkins (Ramaco), Kevin Ball (Whitehaven Coal), Paul Baruya(Future Coal) Michael Caravaggio (EPRI), Alexandre Claude (Dry Bulk), NikkiFisher (Thungela), Peter Morris (Minerals Council of Australia), Dmitry Popov(Oldendorff), Brian Ricketts (Euracoal), Hans Wilhelm Schiffer (RWE), Sandy Tickell (Glencore), Paul Simons (Yale University), Rodolfo Shimatsu (Telf) andAkira Yabumoto (J-POWER). Theindividuals and organisations that contributed to this report are notresponsible for any opinion or judgement it