2026年大型石油公司：宏观与地缘政治主导主题

EquitiesOil & Gas Macro and geopolitics dominate over themes Global ◆European oil majors’ outperformance leaves little valuationupside. Macro and geopolitics dominate 2026sectoroutlook Kim Fustier*Senior Global Oil & Gas AnalystHSBC Bank plckim.fustier@hsbc.com ◆Upgrades to refining margins offset by lower gas andchemicals, with downside risk to earnings from oil oversupply Sadnan Ali*, CFAGlobal Oil & Gas AnalystHSBC Bank plcsadnan.ali@hsbc.com ◆Downgrade TTE toHold; upgrade CVX to Buy; retain Buy onGalp and Hold onBP,ENI, EQNR, XOM, OMV,REP,SHEL.Werevise TPs bya range of-6% to +4% Samantha Hoh, CFASenior Analyst, Clean TechHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.samantha.hoh@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 8783 European oils have performed surprisingly wellin 2025, outperforming indices by 6%whileoilhas fallen by 16%, leavinglittle valuation upside. We expect Europeanmajorsto underperform and lagtheUScounterpartsin 2026 on mean reversion, downward Ujjwal Sharma*AssociateBangalore We update our macro assumptions for 2026outside of crude oil: (1) We raiserefining margins as we expect geopolitically-driven tightness to persist through 1H26, * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations absent a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. SeeGlobal oil refining: Sanctions,drones, and winter push margins higher(1 December).(2) We cut our TTF Europeangas to USD10/mBtu (vs USD11.25). We see more upside than downside risk in the near term as bearishnesslinked toUkraine peace talks is overdone,in our view. SeeGas markets: Cutting TTF forecast, but upside risks remain near term(1 December). (3) We cut our petrochemical marginsas we see a prolonged downcycle out to 2028. 2026 sector outlook:We expect the Big Oils to be driven largely by macro factors,notably if the widely anticipated oil‘glut’materialises. A slide in Brent toless thanUSD60/b would reviveconcernsabout the sustainability of majors’ buybacks. Thesector does not offer non-macro related‘themes’onto whichinvestorscanlatch.AI is We update our estimates and TPs to reflect revised macro assumptions.We upgradeChevron to Buy and downgrade Total to Holdon relative share price performance.We have a majority of Hold ratings, and our only other Buy-rated name isGalp.We Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosureappendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Big Oils in 2026 ◆European oil majors' outperformance leaves little valuation upside.Macro and geopolitics dominate 2026 sector outlook ◆Upgrades to refining margins offset by lower gas and chemicals, withdownside risk to earnings from oil oversupply◆Downgrade TTE to Hold; upgrade CVX to Buy; retain Buy on Galpand Hold on BP, ENI, EQNR, XOM, OMV, REP, SHEL European majors’valuationslook full after outperformance The European integrated oils have performed surprisinglywell this year as well as in recentmonths, considering Brent oil prices have fallen by 16% (USD12/b) year-to-date. The Europeanoil majors have outperformed the Eurostoxx 600 by 6% YTD and by 12% in the past six months. ◆The market never priced in USD75/b Brent long-term in the stocks’ valuations, but rather The Brent forward curve is broadly unchanged from a year ago, with the long end of the Positioning in the sector was light or underweight, leading to squeezes in the stocks with Strength in refining margins, whichisthe tightest area of the global energy commoditycomplex. This has pushed refining-heavy stocks higher, including Repsol, Galp,andOMV ◆Some company-specific stories have captured investors’ attention, e.g. BP (strategicturnaround), Chevron (closing of Hess deal), Eni (“satellite” strategy uncorrelated to oil prices). In contrast, US Supermajors have underperformed the US market in line with the decline in oilprices. This could be due to the US majors’ greater operating leverage to crude prices giventheir higher upstream bias and lower tax rates. Their shares are up by only 5% on average, vs a 2025 turned out to be a stock-pickers’ year, with a wide performance gap between top performerRepsol (+50% YTD, boosted by refining margins) and bottom performer Equinor (-3% in USD)–albeit driven almost entirely by macro factors rather than bottom-up, company-specific stories. European oil majors have outperformed their US counterparts by 29% YTD. We now see moreattractive valuation in US oil majors than many of the Europeans on a relative basis, althoughabsolute trading multiples remain at substantial premiums. Looking ahead,we would expectEuropean majors to underperform both their local indices as well as US majors in 2026 on mean Macroassumptionchanges We make changes to our macro assumptions across non-crude oil commodities: natural gas, Crude oil–downside risks rising We ma