全球_CLOs_2026_出口_交易_停车场

Dancing in the Dark SIGNATURE Despite increasing uncertainties and risks in our inputs, weexpect CLOs to maintain strong issuance at the expense ofspreads leaking slightly wider, with enough reasons to keep Gavin Zhu+ 1 212 526 0668gavin.zhu@barclays.com The global macro backdrop is strong but increasingly equities-focused/AI-driven, and weexpect corporate credit spreads to widen on the back of increased risks amid a pullback tomedians. We also think CLO demand will need to undergo ashiftand be less reliant on non- Despite increasing uncertainties,we forecast another strong year of BSL CLO issuance,with $160bn of new issuance and $200bn of refis/resets in the US, and €55bn of newissuance and €40bn of refis/resets in the EU,driven by increased loan supply and new We think that strong issuance will come at the expense ofCLO debt spreads leaking slightlywiderin tandem with corporate credit,with US BSL AAAs ending the year at 125bp, and EUAAAs ending at 135bp.Within the stack,we prefer US BBs and EU AAAs. In private credit, although we do not yet see signs of systemic concerns, we expect continuedscrutiny andforecast $35bn of US PC new issuance and $20bn of refis/resets. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its The Prelude: Get Ready to Keep Dancing The ballad of CLOs in 2025 has been a song of two melodies, marked by a dramaticshiftin toneafter"Liberation Day". We went into the year expecting CLOs to let the good times roll, withmoderate growth and inflation benefiting credit markets (akin to the mid-1990s), with rate cutspoised to provide relief and spur corporate activity. And roll they did—for a brief period—with As we'll hear in the Pre-Chorus, we expect a strong macro backdrop anchored on theperformance of AI lasting at least another year, alongside a mixed corporate credit outlookdriven by increased supply and spreads regressing to medians, with CLO demand also requiringashiftback to more traditional sources. This builds up to the Chorus, wherewe expect CLOs in So though elevated uncertainties might currently make itdifficultto see exactly where we areheaded, we think there are enough reasons for the CLO market to waltz along for yet another The Pre-Chorus: Our Inputs Yes we know you are all eager to get to the chorus already, but the build-up is important too! Wecontinue to view the CLO market as a function of three key inputs: macro, corporate credit, and The Macro Backdrop Just as we felt in June, we continue to see the macro picture as the input with the highestcausality (and uncertainty) for CLOs. In 2026, we expect AI to be the biggest driver of the macrobackdrop, but despite increased market skepticism, our strategists donotthink that currentvaluations are indicative of a bubble and have increased their YE26 price target for the S&P 500to 7400 (this is important, given the negative correlation between CLO spreads and the equityindex). We expect AI capex to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and see AI's support for In the US, our economists expect headline CPI to peak at 3.4% in 2Q26 (ending 2026 at 3.0%),with real GDP growth at 2.1% and unemployment at 4.2%, indicating a still relatively benigncredit backdrop. They forecast a 25bp cut in December despite an increasing divide amongFOMC participants (acknowledging a real possibility of being delayed to January), along withtwo more cuts in 2026 amid continued worries about downside risks to employment. Our rates Across the Atlantic, we find that the euro area has largely avoided the tech highs and lows seenin the US, remaining resilient and investing to accelerate AI adoption, but still risks beingleftbehind. Our economists expect consumer price inflation to peak at 2.0% in 2Q26, with real GDPgrowth falling to 1.0%, and expect the ECB to keep rates on hold through end-2027. A few key While macroeconomic growth (and rising stocks) is generally pretty positive for our corner ofthe world, the resurgence of AI-driven animal spirits may come at the cost of caution in credit,aligning with the fact thatour strategists expect global equity markets to outperform corefixed income for the coming quarter,with the AI narrative clearly the biggest risk.AI risk is Corporate Credit and Loan Fundamentals The US corporate credit picture has become increasingly tricky, with spreads so tight for muchof 2025, butwe think we are in the late-cycle extension part of the US credit cycle, withshades of the 1996-97 mid-cycle adjustment, the 2005-06 pre-GFC period, or the 2017-18 post-tax cut boom, marked by abundant liquidity, decent growth and the (re-)resurgance of animal spirits. Following historical example, spreads can remain tight for some time (2018 saw thetightest CLO 2.0 spreads prior to this year), but e