亚洲经济观察新加坡2026-11991476年没有收紧MAS

Date5 December 2025 Economics Asia Economic Notes Singapore: No MAS tightening in 2026 Junjie HuangEconomist With the MAS approaching/having approached the end of its easing cycle in ourview, we have received queries on whether/when the central bank is going totighten monetary policy.We do not expect the MAS to do so in 2026, and thinkthat policy tightening is more of a 2027 story, if any, when core inflation on Our baseline is that MAS would maintain the current policy settings over 2026 Historically,MAS had typically tightened during(i)robust external and/ordomestic demand; (ii) periods of increasing global commodity/oil prices; (iii) tightlabor market and high wage growth; and (iv) GST hikes. (Figure2) As we explainbelow, the first three factors are expected to moderate in 2026 in our baseline, Growthis expected to settle at potential in 2026inthe 2-3% range from ~4% thisyear. The positive output gap should narrow to ~0% of GDP in 2026 from +0.5- –We think it is unlikely that the MAS would want to tighten policy over 2026 tofurther derail growth momentum (qoq sa avg +0.9% in 2025, +0.5% in 2026),given Singapore’s economic priority of pushing for a “faster rate of growth”(than 2-3%) over the next few years. Real exports may taper to 3.4% in 2026 –The risks to growth are balanced in our view. On the upside, there could berenewed frontloading of trade if sectoral tariffs are imposed, especially inpharma. On the downside, risks to the AI growth story will propagate throughthe domestic economy fairly quickly, given that it has been one of the main While we forecastcore inflationto increase to 1.7% in 2026 from 0.7% in 2025,this is mainly due to low base effects from this year.Sequentially, the averagemomentum in 2026 is +0.12% MoM, similar to +0.10% in 2025, thus theinflationary impulse is expected to be fairly limited.We expect the MAS to look –Global commodity prices are expected to remain subdued per theWorldBank’s outlook, whileDBalso expects oil prices to continue falling, albeit at a 5 December 2025Asia Economic Notes –Domestically, we see PM Wong (also Finance Minister) being more amenableto subsidies and social assistance than previous FMs, which should keepadministeredprice(healthcare,education,public services)increases –MAS’ own forecastsfor2026 (Figure7) show that the higher core inflationwould largely be driven by essential services, but we think future Budgetsmay include further subsidies, social assistance, and reforms that may offset Wage growthisexpected to moderate in 2026after a strong 2024 and 2025Figure8Figure6), per the labor market outlook fromMAS,Ministry of Manpower,and surveys of private firms (Singapore Business Federation,Singapore NationalEmployers Federation). It is hard to see wage growth continuing at 2025’s pace,with an increasing share of businesses anticipating worsening conditions, rising Supply-side factors a greater influence on core inflation than demand-pull We do not expect strong demand-pull pressure on inflation as wagegrowthmoderates in 2026.Indeed, even in 2025 discretionary spending had not drivencore inflation up to a large extent (Figure9), despite robust wage growth and largersocial transfers of 0.5% GDP in theFY2025 budget(FY2024: 0.4%). Rather, retailsales data suggest that personal consumption growth may have been driven by –That said, growth in Private Hire Companies has already begun to slow (seehereand here).EV rebates will begin to decline from next year, whilesurchargesfor ICE cars will increase,both of which will dampen car –Continued strength in personal consumption expenditure could well dependon more inflow ofwealthinto the country, but we do not expect mass-marketretail to pick up given the likely cooling of wage and personal disposable –Government social transfers may continue, but it is unlikely to be as large asin 2025, a year which started with very high uncertainty, had a GeneralElection, and was Singapore’s 60thyear of independence. Consider that The uptick in inflation most recently in October was driven by the fading baseeffectsfrom healthcare subsidies.As earlier mentioned,essential services What may drive MAS to tighten? 2026 growth may have to outperform such that the output gap is similartoorstronger than 2025, or inflation surges ahead due to supply-side shocks. We do Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source:Monetary Authority ofSingapore, Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research, HaverAnalytics Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Department of Statistics Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Department ofStatistics Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source:Deutsche BankResearch, Haver Analytics 5 December 2025Asia Economic Notes Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned leadanalyst(s). Inaddition, the