中欧半导体：中国打造出极紫外光（EUV）原型机了吗？

China/EU Semis: China built an EUV prototype? On Dec 17, 2025 late evening (Beijing time), Reuters published a piece of breaking newssaying that China has already built an EUV prototype in early 2025. Our local channel checkindicates that this should be real.We believe China Semis names will rally, expectedupside Foundry > Semicap > Fabless, Outperform on SMIC, Hua Hong, NAURA,AMEC, Piotech, Cambricon, Hygon. We rate ASML Market-Perform. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com The prototype is through reverse engineering and still rely on global supply chain,but is still an important milestone.This achievement was primarily driven by two corestrategies: reverse engineering of ASML's lithography tools and purchasing part of thecritical components from the overseas second hand supply chain. Regardless, we think thisstill comes a few years earlier than many had expected, and should be turning the debatefrom ‘can China make EUV?’ to ‘when can China make EUV work?’. Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com It will still take years for China’s EUV machine to enter mass production. Assumingthe report is true, China’s first EUV machine was made possible with second hand parts andis not capable of producing chips yet. Government is targeting 2028 for working chips, but2030 is more likely. Based on this, the China prototype is probably more like ASML’s 2001moment (when ASML had its first working prototype in house). It then took ASML 5 yearsto deliver its first alpha demo tool externally (2006), and another 4 years to ship the firstproduction class tool (2010). The first model for commercial mass production, 3400B, wasnot shipped until 2017, mostly because of the throughput optimization. Of course, China’space will likely be much faster, but it will still take many years before it produces mass-production grade EUV tools rivaling that of ASML’s. Carmine Milano+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com China's EUV progress promises enormous upside for the local advanced logic supplychain, particularly Foundry and Semicap.Although the prototype will not change anyof the near term fundamentals, the EUV narrative brings long-term upside to local supplychain and thus will allow China Semis stocks to enjoy a meaningful multiple re-rate. LocalEUV breakthrough will allow local foundries to have a roadmap to continue its Moore’sLaw, making it possible for SMIC to narrow the gap vs. TSMC. For equipment vendors, thiscreates a virtuous cycle of technological iteration and industrial upgrading driven by futurenode migration, which will need the leading local vendors such as NAURA to continuouslyinnovate on new tools, these new tools always bring higher margin, thus the upside is forboth top line and bottom line. Local Fabless like Cambricon will also benefit as they can alsocontinue node migration. Impact on ASML is mostly negative, but we see some hope too.We have been flaggingthe China risk for ASML, and the EUV breakthrough, if reliable, should weigh on its multiple,as it would no long be a monopoly and see downside to its TAM. On the other hand, China’srevenue contribution is below 30% this year and should drop below 25% next year, andconsidering the early stage of China’s EUV progress, the downside is also limited. At thesame time, it can also be argued that this also brings opportunity for ASML increase Chinasales: if China demonstrates the ability to develop EUV technology independently, it mayprompt U.S. to relax export restrictions, allowing ASML to start selling EUV to China. We seebalanced risk-reward for ASML at the current price and rate it Market-Perform. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We think China’s EUV development brings significant upside to the future potential of China’s advanced logic manufacturing,positive for local foundry likeSMICandHua Hong, local semicap vendors likeNAURA, AMEC, Piotech, and AI chip vendorslikeCambriconandHygon.All are rated Outperform. We rate ASML Market-Perform. DETAILS EXHIBIT 2:Due to equipment constrain, China’scapability on advanced logic manufacturing is farbehind, only can deliver 4% of global share in advancedlogic EXHIBIT 1:Chinese fabless took 24% of global advancedlogic demand at the peak in 2018 before Huawei wasbanned, due to supply constrain the ratio droped to only~15% in 2024 EXHIBIT 4:China system sales increased significantly in Q3 reaching 42% of total revenue—the highest levelobserved over the past 12 months. ASML’s China 2025 revenue now appears to be well above its guidance ofslightly over 25% of total revenue. I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2