全球航空运输展望：贸易、人工智能与能源转型

Global Outlook for Air TransportTrade, AI, and the energy transition Table of contents 1.Main takeaways 2.Trade, AI, and the Energy Transition 3.Resilience amid headwinds: Navigating global shocks3.1Airpassengertraffic3.2Aircargotraffic 4. Airlinefinancialperformance 15 4.1Revenue developments4.2Cost developments 5. Appendix:Industrystatistics 1.Main takeaways This semi-annual report takes a broad look at developments in the airline •Global trade has been surprisingly resilient, despitethe volatile trade policy environment. Air cargocame to everybody’s rescue as a critical enablerof rapid adaptation, ensuring that goods arrivedahead of announced tariff deadlines and facilitatingthe swift rerouting of China’s exports to alternativemarkets. Air cargo is also playing an increasinglycentral role in the growing trade in AI-related goods. Record high load factors and fleet utilization,together with a rapid expansion of ancillaryrevenues, will allow airlines to maintain a relativelyhealthy profit amid the headwinds, with record highnet profit of USD 41 billion in 2026, and a stable netmargin of 3.9%. This impressive achievement should Regionally, Europe is set to deliver the highestnet profit, very much thanks to Turkey’s stellarperformance. The Middle East is the region with thehighest profit margins. Asia Pacific is where growthis the most rapid, and Latin America shows signs of •While artificial intelligence and the associated tradeflows are an opportunity for air cargo, it is muchless helpful for the global energy transition. Growingelectricity demand from data centers is increasingcompetition for limited renewable energy, making itharder to secure affordable inputs for Sustainable Sustainability is a priority for the airline industry,which is firmly committed to achieving net zero CO2emissions by 2050. Key solutions for theindustry’s decarbonization are not coming tomarket fast enough. SAF is projected to cover lessthan 1% of total fuel consumption in 2026, in anunambiguous verdict on how ineffective the currentpolicy environment is. This unfortunately extends •For 2026, we forecast a 4.9% YoY growth inpassenger traffic (measured in RPK), led by the AsiaPacific region’s expansion by 7.3%. This marginaldeceleration over 2025 is mainly because ofpersistent supply-side constraints, including limitedaircraft availability, and labor shortages. Supplyconstraints continue to keep load factors at record 2.Trade, AI, and the Energy Trade,GDP,andgrowingfinancialrisks While artificial intelligence is very much the centraltheme of the global economy going into 2026, the returnof more protectionist trade policies was a dominantconcern at the start of 2025. The volatile trade-policyenvironment has turned out to be less detrimental to theglobal economy than what was feared earlier this year.However, 2025 would undoubtedly have been a muchmore stellar year in terms of economic performance hadthe previous trade policies remained in place. We havemostly the slow, intermittent, and partial implementation Unexpected agility was seen in how swiftly the rest ofthe world adapted to the new environment and how China’s exports rose from USD 2.3 trillion in theJanuary to August months of 2024 to USD 2.45 trillionin the same period in 2025. Exports to the US fell byUSD 52 billion on the same basis but were more than Merchandise trade can now be expected to expandby around 2.4% in 2025 (versus 2.8% in 2024),3whilesomething much closer to zero growth in such tradewas anticipated early in the year. However, this paceof growth in trade is unlikely to be repeated in 2026 The value of trade transported by air rose by 25% year-on-year (YoY) in January to August 2025, based on datafrom 47 countries representing 39% of global trade.1Incontrast, the value of trade across all transport modes Global GDP grew at a rate of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter(QoQ) in the first two quarters of 2025, of which Asiacontributed 0.6 percentage points. Growth is likely toslow in the second half of 2025, and on an end-yearbasis we expect around 2.6% in Q4 2025 YoY, downfrom 3.6% on the same basis in 2024, capturing theslowing momentum. In full-year figures, the deceleration A weaker US dollar and the record-high price of goldalso point to investors searching for safer havens.The space for monetary policy easing in the US andelsewhere is limited in this context, highlighting thetension between loose fiscal policies and still ratherrestrictive monetary policy globally. While these factors AI and productivity Trade in AI-related goods also played a role in thebetter-than-expected economic performance in 2025.The WTO estimates this category to surge by 20% YoYin 2025. The goods concerned include semiconductors,servers, and telecommunications equipment and spanthe entire digital value chain from raw silicon to devices.4 The impact of AI on the global economy in 2025 can besummed up as follows: Supported merchandise trade in the face of Generate