九大主题要点：2025年精选：驱动力与变革者

Best of 2025: Drivers and disruptors From disruptive technology anddigital assets to trade flows,we see the world through nineinvestment themes This compilation highlights keythematic reports from the lastyear that resonated most withour readers To subscribe to any of ourthemes,click here, and subscribe to thisperiodical here By The Numbers: Our Nine Themes in 2025 Digital Finance Demographics Automation 65% 2026 is likely to be the year whenmainstream adoption (by institutionalinvestors and corporates) of blockchaintechnology and tokenization of money andassets accelerates◆ Contrary to consensus, we do not see bigprofits for humanoid robot makers eventhough we see the market growing rapidlyRobots, robots everywhere: China isleading the way in super-automatedfactories◆◆ By 2086 South Korea is on track to havethis amount of its population aged over 65 The rapid ageing of populations posesenormous fiscal risksPension and health pledges are increas-ingly unaffordable, making difficultdecisions even more pressingAn ageing population and low interest ratespose challenges to China’s pension system◆◆◆ 8,000%YoY increase in stablecoinmentions by globalcorporates during Q3earnings season 46% China has the largest, operationalindustrial robot stock in the world(% of the global total) Energy Transition Disruptive Technology USD3bnVenture capital investment inquantum computers byNovember 2025 USD3.5–7.3trn We expect the AI story tobroaden, benefitting adopters,enablers and softwaredevelopers in equities, andutilities in credit◆ Combined global solar and windgeneration growth surpassed the2.6% year-on-year increase inelectricity demand in the first halfof the year◆ Annual cost oftransitioning to anet-zero economy 37%Percentage of globalCO2emissions frombuildings Future Consumer Future Transport Trade Flows 10x We see 2026 starting strong for the globalluxury goods sector, with consumersengaging with better value propositionsfrom the brands.....and a sales pick-up geographically led bythe US and Greater China◆◆ Trade has held upremarkably well this year.In fact US trade policiesare accelerating the development ofother, non-US trade corridors, includingAsia-MENA and within BRICS◆ HSBC predicted increase in China’srobotaxi fleet mid-2025 to end-2026 We expect around 900 model launchesin 2025-27, with a peak in 2026……as carmakers try to bring moreaffordable EVs to marketIn China commercial deployment ofautonomous driving, robotaxis androbotics is gaining momentum◆◆◆ cUSD800bn 6.5% Estimated organic salesgrowth for the luxurysector in 2026 The volume of global trade covered byrecently signed trade agreements andthose under negotiation Contents Disruptive Technology5Digital Finance9Trade Flows12Energy Transition/Trade Flows15Future Transport16Automation17Demographics18Future Consumer19Future Cities21 More from Global InvestmentResearch22 To subscribe to any of ourthemes,click here, and subscribe tothis periodicalhere. Drivers and disruptors 2025 was a year of rapid change Highlights from our Nine Themes content David May*Global Head of InvestmentResearchHSBC Bank plcdavid.may@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 8359 In this special edition of Nine Themes Talking Points, we showcase the topics that resonatedmost with our readers in 2025. As a reminder, our Nine Themes are Automation, Demographics,Digital Finance, Disruptive Technology, Energy Transition, Future Cities, Future Consumer,Future Transport and Trade Flows.To subscribe to any ofourthemes,click here. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBCSecurities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Early on in 2025, the widespread use of tariffs by the US administration dialled up thepessimism about the future of global trade.But our researchfindsthatnewtradedealscouldultimately cover a similar amount of trade as those now facing US restrictions under the newtariffs announced in 2025.We monitored global movements, the impact on global growth andtrade corridors, as well as considering trade in the context of the net-zeroenergy transition. Indisruptive technologythepace of newartificial intelligencedevelopmentshas been rapid.We continued to track the latest moves, sharing our experiments and looking at the impact onjobs, markets, company performance and more. Beyond AI, weconsideredthe nextthreebig trends that could transform the global economy–humanoid robots, autonomous driving and quantum computing.Quantum computers continueto make headway. With vast potential computational power, it is increasingly moving from pureresearch to commercial trials of real-world use cases. Robotaxis are not coming;they are already here.From autonomous driving to the latestdevelopments in electric vehicles, ourfuture transportcoverage tracked what’s drivingcarmakers from China to the US. Inautomationwe considered who will win the robots race. Indemographicswe examined the fiscal consequences of ageing populations. Welaunchedourdig