九大主题要点：2025年精选：驱动力与变革者

Nine Themes Talking Points Disclosures & Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. By The Numbers: Our Nine Themes in 2025 Disruptive Technology cUSD800bn The volume of global trade covered byrecently signed trade agreements and Contents To subscribe to any of ourthemes,click here, and subscribe tothis periodicalhere. Drivers and disruptors 2025 was a year of rapid change Highlights from our Nine Themes content David May*Global Head of InvestmentResearchHSBC Bank plc In this special edition of Nine Themes Talking Points, we showcase the topics that resonatedmost with our readers in 2025. As a reminder, our Nine Themes are Automation, Demographics,Digital Finance, Disruptive Technology, Energy Transition, Future Cities, Future Consumer, * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBCSecurities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Early on in 2025, the widespread use of tariffs by the US administration dialled up thepessimism about the future of global trade.But our researchfindsthatnewtradedealscouldultimately cover a similar amount of trade as those now facing US restrictions under the new Indisruptive technologythepace of newartificial intelligencedevelopmentshas been rapid.We continued to track the latest moves, sharing our experiments and looking at the impact on Beyond AI, weconsideredthe nextthreebig trends that could transform the global economy–humanoid robots, autonomous driving and quantum computing.Quantum computers continueto make headway. With vast potential computational power, it is increasingly moving from pure Robotaxis are not coming;they are already here.From autonomous driving to the latestdevelopments in electric vehicles, ourfuture transportcoverage tracked what’s drivingcarmakers from China to the US. Inautomationwe considered who will win the robots race. In Welaunchedourdigital assetsresearch with a deepdive on US President Trump’s pledge tomake the US the crypto capital of the planet. The changes already underway in the US couldturbo-charge adoption of digital assets and push it into the mainstream. Want to know more? We also kicked off our new‘In Stereo’series, whichbrings together two companies runningsimilar businesses but operating in very different geographies. Tying in with ourfutureconsumertheme, the first two in the series compared Trip.com and Booking Holdings, andSpotify vs Tencent Music. Subscribe to In Stereohere. And for more on the future consumer, Nine themes What are the next game-changing technologies? Right now, it feels like we are in the midst of a rapid transformation in the technology space–and the economy is adjusting to it at pace. Changes in energy, battery and of courseartificialintelligencetechnology are coming every day and will continue to alter the underlying fabric ofthe global economy, mostly for the better. But beyond these three areas, there are even more James PomeroyGlobal EconomistHSBC Bank plcjames.pomeroy@hsbc.com Bethan EllisGlobalEconomistHSBC Bank plcbethan.ellis@hsbc.com Each of these areas is seeing rapid progress. Coupled with AI, they are likely to lead totransformative impacts for the quality of human life, the labour market and productivity. The upsides could be substantial–with the most optimistic projections estimating that acombination of all these emerging technologies adding 1.5ppts or more to annual productivity But this comes at a huge cost. Employment in many sectors has the potential to be moresubstantially affected over the next decade than at any point in history–be that driving or Therewill be big winners and big losers. These technological breakthroughs, like AI, create thepotential to make some firms much more productive and profitable, but smaller firms and someworkers could be left behind. What is good for the stock market may notbe good for the broad Why read this report?Humanoidrobots,autonomousvehicles andquantumcomputing couldhave big, tangible implications for the global economy, say James Pomeroy and Bethan Ellis. ContactJamesonemailandsubscribeIContactBethanonemail Gamechangers–The next three bigtech trends to transform the globaleconomy Disruptive Technology What’s the reality of AI? The capabilities of modernartificial intelligencemodels would have seemed like implausiblescience fiction just a decade ago. And the pace of new AI developments is so rapid that it ishard even for specialists to keep up with the news. As a result, it is unsurprising that manypeople have developed misconceptions about AI technology.Weaddress the eight AI Mark McDonaldHead of AIand Data ScienceHSBC Bank plcmark.mcdonald@hsbcib.com Yuning BaiData ScientistHSBC Bank plcyuning.bai@hsbc.com Modern AI models are based on a type of machine learning model known as a neural network.Despite the name, these neural networks are, at best, only a very loose analo