2025年全球近实时每日二氧化碳排放报告

Introduction CarbonMonitorisafrequentlyupdateddailyCO2emissiondataset,tomonitorthevariationsofCO2 Data Notes and Usage Guidance DataNotes ThisreportisbasedonthedailyCO2 emissiondatasetreleasedbyCarbonMonitoronNovember1,2025. Coverage:175,015dailyCO2emissionrecordsfromJanuary1,2019toSeptember30,2025,covering: -Globalcoveragewithbreakdownsfor9regions:China,UnitedStates,India,EuropeanUnion(EU27),Russia,Japan, Emissionscope:Emissionsincludefossilfuelcombustionandindustrialprocessemissions,correspondingtotheIPCC2006 2025full-yearprojection:Projections for 2025 CO2emissions are derived from historical daily data covering 2019–2025. Data access and versioning:Up-to-date daily CO2emission data are available athttps://carbonmonitor.org.Pleasenote thatongoing updates to source datasets may lead to differences between the latest release and previously published versions. TeamLeaders •ZhuLIU,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing,China•PhilippeCIAIS,Laboratoiredes Sciences duClimatet del‘Environnement(LSCE),Gif-sur-Yvette, France Authors •ZhuDENG,TheUniversityofHongKong,HongKongSAR,China•ZiSHAO,TheUniversityofHongKong,HongKongSAR,China•JingyuZHAN,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing,China •BiqingZHU,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,Laxenburg, Austria•XuanrenSONG,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing,China Supportedby •DepartmentofEarthSystemScience,TsinghuaUniversity•InstituteforCarbon Neutrality,TsinghuaUniversity •National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2023YFE0113000)•Research Grants Council-Strategic Topics Grant STG2/P-705/24-R 1.1GlobaldailyCO2emissionsinnear-real-time Record-highglobaldailyCO2emissionsin2025,withaslowinggrowthtrend. DailyCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustionandindustrialprocesses,MtCO2 1.2CO2emissiontrendsacrosscountriesandregions 1.3Sectoralandnationaldriversofthe2025emissionchange China leads global emissions reductions in 2025, driven by declines across sectors. ChangefromannualaveragedailyCO2emissionsfrom2024to2025,KtCO2 02 2.1China 2.2UnitedStates 2.3India 2.4EuropeanUnion(EU27) 2.5Russia 2.6Japan 2.7Brazil 2.8UnitedKingdom 2.9RestoftheWorld(ROW) 3.1Methodology ØDailyCO2emissionestimates Wecalculate daily CO2emissionssince January 2019,drawing on hourly datasetsofelectricityproductionandCO2 thesubstantial variations in carbon intensity associated with electricityproduction),threedifferentindexesofdailyvehicletraffic/mobilityin500cities Detailsabouttheestimationofsectoralemissionscanbeaccessedhere. ØShort-termprojectionbytheendof2025 Weusedatimeseriesforecastingmodelbasedonanadditivedecompositionframeworktopredictthefull-yearCO2dynamicsintofourstructuralcomponents: wheregt isthetrendfunction,capturinglong-termdirectionalchangesinemissions;st representsthetemporalpatterns,e.g.seasonality;ht denotestheholidayeffects,encodingcountry-specificpublicholidaysandmajoreventsthatdisruptnormalactivity(e.g.,SpringFestivalholidaysinChina,COVID-19lockdowns);εistheerror HistoricaldailyCO2emissionsdatafromCarbonMonitor,spanningJanuary1,2019toSeptember30,2025,areusedasinput.Dataaredisaggregatedbycountryandsectortocaptureheterogeneousemissionpatterns.Eachcountry–sectorseriesismodeledindependentlytopreserveuniquestructuraldynamics.Thefittedmodelsgeneratedaily 3.2FurtherReading Near-real-timedailyCO2 •CarbonMonitor:GlobaldailyCO2emissions,https://carbonmonitor.org•CarbonMonitor-China:DailyCO2emissionsover30provincesinChina,https://cn.carbonmonitor.org•CarbonMonitor-Europe:NationaldailyCO2emissionsover30Europeancountries,https://eu.carbonmonitor.org•CarbonMonitor-Power:Globaldailytype-specificpowergenerationdata,https://power.carbonmonitor.org•CarbonMonitor-Cities:DailyCO2emissionsincities,https://cities.carbonmonitor.org•GRACED:GlobaldailyCO2emissionmaps,https://carbonmonitor-graced.com Relatedpapers: •Deng,Z.,Zhu,B.,Davis,S.J.etal.Globalcarbonemissionsanddecarbonizationin2024.NatureReviewsEarth&Environment6,231–233(2025).•Liu,Z.,Deng,Z.,Davis,S.J.etal.Globalcarbonemissionsin2023.NatureReviewsEarth&Environment5,253–254(2024).•Liu,Z.,Deng,Z.,Davis,S.etal.Monitoringglobalcarbonemissionsin2022.NatureReviewsEarth&Environment4,205–206(2023). •Liu,Z.,Deng,Z.,Zhu,B.etal.GlobalpatternsofdailyCO2emissionsreductionsinthefirstyearofCOVID-19.NatureGeoscience(2022). •Davis,S.J.,Liu,Z.,Deng,Z.etal.EmissionsreboundfromtheCOVID-19pandemic.NatureClimateChange12,412–414(2022).•Liu,Z.,Deng,Z.,Davis,S.J.etal.Monitoringglobalcarbonemissionsin2021.NatureReviewsEarth&Environment3,217–219(2022).•Liu,Z.,Ciais,P.,Deng,Z.et al.Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2emissionsreveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature