石油周报：供过于求压制市场

Oil Core Point Market Analysis This week, the oil & fat futures market traded weakly overall. Among the three major oils, palm oil performed the weakest,mainly driven by the MPOB report which showed unexpected inventorybuildup in Malaysia. Soybean oil was relativelyresilient to declines with a narrow drop this week, supported by market concerns over delays in soybean customs clearanceand the relatively high transaction prices of state-reserved soybean auctions. Rapeseed oil remained relatively strong, Soybean OilIn the early hours of December 10 Beijing time, the December USDA report was released. The report made no adjustments to key global soybean data such as yield, production, inventory, and U.S. soybean exports, but raised soybean oilinventory. Overall, the data was neutral to bearish. According to CONAB data, as of December 5, Brazil’s soybean sowingrate reached 90.3%, lower than 94.1% in the same period last year but higher than the five-year average of 89.8%;meanwhile, the agency estimated that Brazil’s soybean production in the 2025/26 season would hit a record high of177.1236 million tons. This week, Argentina lowered export taxes on some agricultural products, reducing the soybeanexport tax from 26% to 24% and the soybean by-product export tax from 24.5% to 22.5%. Affected by the above bearishfactors, U.S. soybeans fell sharply this week and broke below the 1,100 U.S. cents per bushel level. Customs data showedthat China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans in November, and the cumulative soybean imports from January toNovember 2025 reached 103.7814 million tons. As this year’s import volume is already close to the total soybean imports Palm Oil On December 10, the MPOB released Malaysia’s palm oil supply-demand report for November. Data showed thatMalaysia’s crude palm oil production in November decreased by 5.30% month-on-month to 1.9355 million tons; exportsdropped significantly by 28.13% to 1.2128 million tons; palm oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% Accordingto SPPOMA data,Malaysia’s palm oil production from December 1 to 10 increased by 6.87%month-on-month. India’s reduced palm oil purchases. It is expected that December will not yetenter the inventory destocking cycle, andhigh inventory in producing areas will continue to suppress prices. Currently, the market is still in the phase of digestingbearish factors, and no substantial positive factors have emerged yet. Future focus willremain on production and exportconditions in producing areas. This week, Germany delayed the ban on palm by-product biofuels until 2027, but this willhave limited and long-term impact on actual demand, and its short-term boost to the market will be limited. In the Rapeseed OilThe latest report from Statistics Canada showed that Canada’s rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season reached 21.8 milliontons, a record high; recently, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics also raised its production forecast, increasing Australia’s rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season by 800,000 tons to 7.2 million tons.Production in the two major producing countries has increased simultaneously, and coupled with a bumper harvest ofrapeseed in the EU, the loose pattern of global rapeseed supply in this crop year remains unchanged. Affected by factorssuch as the decline in EU MATIF rapeseed, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybeans, ICE rapeseed fell sharply this week.As of December 12, the ICE rapeseed January contract closed at 605 CAD/ton. Due to the lack of purchases from China,Canada’s rapeseed export data has been poor. According to the monthly export report of the Canadian Grain Commission,from the start of the current crop year to the end of October, Canada’s cumulative rapeseed exports to China were only113,900 tons, compared with 2.29 million tons in the same period last year. Rapeseedexports improved in the week endingDecember 7, with the total export volume so far this crop year reaching 2.38 million tons, still far lower than 4.03 million StrategyNeutral RiskNone Charts Figure1:Palm Oil: 24° Average Spot Price............................................................................................................................5Figure2:Soybean Oil: Grade 1 Average Spot Price..............................................................................................................5Figure3:Rapeseed Oil: Average Spot Price...........................................................................................................................5Figure4:Palm Oil Main Contract Price................................................................................................................................5Figure5:Soybean Oil Main Contract Price............................................................................................................................6Figure6:Rapeseed Oil Main Contract Price......................................................