AI价值链：1GW数据中心容量的实际成本是多少，其构成是什么？

AI Value Chain: How much does a GW of data center capacityactually cost, and what goes into it? Based on a series of conversations with industry experts as well as third-party data onphysical infrastructure, we construct an estimate of rack-level economics for an GB200/NVL72 AI data center. This note includes our analysis and key takeaways. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com We estimate that a typical GB200 / NVL72 rack costs ~$3.4M per rack. Coupledwith ~$2.5M in physical infrastructure costs per rack, this points to all-in AI datacenter capex of $5.9M per rack or $35B per GW.This estimate is notably lower than the$50-60B number given by Nvidia on its Q2 2026 earnings call - we believe Nvidia is lookingahead to future product cycles. Daniel Zhu+1 917 344 8309daniel.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Data center capex is notably dominated by the GPU, which we estimate at 39% oftotal costs, and by Nvidia gross profit dollars (29% of total costs).Given Nvidia’s~70% gross margins, this implies that Nvidia gross profit dollars account for ~30% of totalAI data center spending. Even with lower ASIC margins, AI ASICs would remain the largestcost item by a significant margin: assuming COGS is the same for GPUs vs. ASIC but ASICmargins are 50% instead of 70%, this would take down the price of accelerated computefrom ~$2.3M to ~$1.2M, a ~19% saving on total capex but still ~28% of ASIC data centercapex. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Networking was the other big ticket item at ~13% of spend, although networkingspend was also more dispersed across different types of equipment.Storage wasrelatively small at ~1.4% of spend. Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com How much foundry, HBM & WFE suppliers capture varies significantly between GPU& ASIC.With GB200, foundry gets 2.5-3% of data center capex (US$1.1B/GW) & ~1%more if CPU (US$0.3B/GW) too. HBM gets 3-3.5% (US$1.1B/GW). WFE gets 3-4% (US$1.2B/GW). With ASIC, they get much more, as the same data center capex can buy morechips. Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com The spending on mechanical & electrical equipment was less concentrated,but major items include diesel & gas generators and turbines (~6% of spend),uninterruptible power supplies (~4%) and transformers (~5%).Thermal managementwas a relatively small part of spend (~4%) and remained split between air cooling and liquidcooling, although we expect spend to continue to shift towards liquid cooling. We modelin-rack power components content will increase to 7-8x in Rubin Ultra in 2027 with 800VHVDC design. Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Given the shorter depreciation lifespan of IT Hardware such as servers andnetworking compared to mechanical & electrical equipment or land & buildings, andgiven that operating costs are relatively low, the true economic costs are likely evenmore heavily weighted towards servers and networking compared to what cashcapex would imply.Even at an elevated cost of $0.15/kWH, it costs ~$1.3B in electricityto run a GW of data center capacity for a year. Personnel costs are also negligible, with 20GW data centers reportedly operating with 8-10 people costing $30-80k per year each. Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedNVDA, AVGO, AMD, INTC, QCOM, ADI, NXPI, LRCX, AMAT, MU, ETN, HUBB, PWR, HPE, SMCI, STX, WDC, SNDK estimate is Adjusted EPS; LGN estimateis EBITDA (M); TXN, 2360.TT, 2308.TT, 2382.TT, 3037.TT, 2454.TT, 005930.KS, 005935.KS, SMSN.LI, 000660.KS, ASML, 8035.JP, 6525.JP, 6146.JP,6857.JP, BESI.NA, 6920.JP, 7735.JP valuation is Reported P/E (x); 2330.TT, TSM valuation is P/B (x); LGN valuation is EV/EBITDA (x); NVDA, LRCX, DELL,SMCI, STX, WDC, SNDK base year is 2025;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS NVDA (OP, $225):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible. AVGO (OP, $400):A strong 2025 AI trajectory seems set to accelerate into 2026, bolstered by software, cash deployment, andsuperb margins & FCF AMD (MP, $200):AI expectations remain high, but a new deal with OpenAI has the prospect to drive further (possiblysubstantial) growth INTC (MP, $35):Intel's problems have broken through to the forefront. QCOM (OP, PT $185):AAPL headwinds are now here but are known, the product portfolio is stronger than ever, option valueexists, and the shares are very inexpensive. TXN (MP, $160):TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment. ADI (MP, $240)