TMTB：一场令多头空头双双失望的非泡沫：Sam的疯狂消费如何改变一切

NOV16,2025 2025年11⽉16⽇TMTBREAKOUT TMT突破者 分享 TheworstkeptsecretamongTechmarketparticipants—justsomethingAIbullsdonʼtadmitoutloud:theywantaprice-actionbubbleeverybitasmuchasthebearsdo. 科技圈参与者⼼照不宣的秘密⸺只是AI多头从不宣之于⼝：他们和空头⼀样渴望价格出现泡沫式波动。 Bothwanttoseethatsteep,“blow-off”ascentthatcharacterizesparabolictops.Why?TheAIbullsareallfullyloadedforaverticalmelt-upandAIbearswanttheaftermathsotheycanyell“Itoldyouso.” 双⽅都渴望看到标志性抛物线顶部那种陡峭的"喷发⾏情"。为何？AI多头已全副武装等待垂直暴涨，⽽空头则期盼泡沫破裂后能⾼喊"早警告过你们"。 ItʼsobvioustoAIbulls(usincluded)thatweʼrenotinanAIbubble.Thenon-argumentissimple:valuationsarereasonable(NVDAnear20x),theequityriskpremiumisalmost300bpsabovewhereittroughedinthetechbubble,operatingmarginsarerich,andweʼrestillveryearlyinthedemand/buildoutoftheAIsupercycle.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 对⼈⼯智能看涨者（包括我们在内）来说，当前显然不存在AI泡沫。这⼀论断的理据很简单：估值合理（英伟达市盈率仅20倍左右），股票⻛险溢价较科技泡沫低⾕期⾼出近300个基点，运营利润率丰厚，且我们仍处于AI超级周期需求爆发和基建部署的极 Butbullswilltypicallyfollowthisargumentupbysaying“‘itʼsmorelike‘97/ʼ98.” 但多头通常会补充说："这更像97/98年的⾏情"。 Implicitinthatstatementisthattheyʼrehopingtheinevitableoutcomeisa‘97-ʼ99styleramp,withallhopingitwouldoccurassoonaspossible.Why?Thesimplestanswerisusuallytherightone:everyonelikesbiggerbonusesassoonaspossible. 这种共识背后潜台词是：双⽅都期待必然结局会是97-99年式的直线拉升，且都盼望它越快发⽣越好。为什么？最简单的答案往往最正确：⼈⼈都想尽快拿到更丰厚的奖⾦。 Statedsuccinctly:the“AIbubble”ascentwastheparadigmthatbothbullsandbearswereoperatingunderformostofthisyear,orlonger.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 简⽽⾔之：今年⼤部分时间⾥（甚⾄更久），"AI泡沫"的上涨轨迹是多空双⽅共同默认的市场范式。 BadnewsfortheAIbullsandbears:thepastfewweekshasbroughtanendtothatparadigmandledustoanunexpectedturningpointinthedynamicsoftheAItrade/narrative.Onthe3yearanniversaryofChatGPTʼsrelease,noless. 对AI多头和空头来说都是坏消息：过去⼏周已终结了这⼀格局，并将我们带向AI交易/叙事动态中⼀个意想不到的转折点⸺恰逢ChatGPT发布三周年之际。 AndwehaveSamʼs$1.4T30GWsplurgetothankforit. 这⼀切都要归功于Sam那1.4万亿美元、30吉瓦规模的豪掷计划。 SamʼsSplurge(weʼllcallit“SS”)openedupAI“pandoraʼsbox,”shiftingtheAInarrativeinunexpectedways. 我们将之称为"SS"的Sam挥霍计划，意外地打开了AI的"潘多拉魔盒"，以始料未及的⽅式改变了AI叙事。 First,theoverarchingdiscussionhasshiftedtoagreaterfocusonOAIʼsabilitytomonetizeandwhatthatmeansacrosstheTechecosystem,fromadplatformstosoftware/servicescompaniestoGPUstoinfrahostinglikeORCL.Despitethebehemothitalreadyis,themarketbegantoappreciateitwastakingimplicitbetson微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K whatisstilla3yearoldstartupindustry/company. ⾸先，整体讨论重⼼已转向更关注OAI的变现能⼒，及其对科技⽣态系统的⼴泛影响⸺从⼴告平台到软件/服务公司，从GPU供应商到ORCL等基础设施托管服务。尽管OAI已是庞然⼤物，市场开始意识到这本质上仍是在押注⼀个仅成⽴三年的初创⾏业/企业。 Second,SSandconnecteddealsbroughtmorefocustotheinterconnectednessofthewholeecosystem,OAIʼsoutsizedroleinit,circularfinancing,and“toobigtoofail”discussions. 其次，"SS"计划及相关交易让⼈们更关注整个⽣态系统的互联性、OAI在其中超然的⻆⾊、循环融资以及"⼤⽽不能倒"的讨论。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Third,SSandhis“Giveusafewmonthsanditʼllallmakesense…Wearenotascrazyasitseems.Thereisaplan.”openedupdiscussionsaboutgovernmentʼsroleinAI.WhilegovernmentinterventionwouldhelpacceleratetheAIbuildout,italsoopenedadoorwayofinvestordoubt.ReaderCIO AtCGexpressedtheseoppositeoutcomeswellinTMTB Chat: 第三，萨姆·奥特曼（SS）那句"给我们⼏个⽉时间，⼀切都会变得合理…我们没看上去那么疯狂。这背后有个计划"的发⾔，引发了关于政府应在AI发展中扮演何种⻆⾊的⼴泛讨论。虽然政府⼲预可能加速AI基础设施建设，但同时也为投资者的疑虑打开了⼀扇⻔。读者CG公司的⾸席投资官在TMTB Chat中精辟地表达了这种⽭盾性结果： “Itʼsbullishif/whenithappens.Butuntilithappensitcreatesdoubtifitisgravy(moreupside)orifitʼsneededtoexecutethe1trn+commitments.Anydoubtsonabilitytoexecutethe1.4trnisjustbearishsentimentvis-à-vistoday.SoFriaropenedadoorthatwasclosed.Andbyopeningit,itopenedboththeleftandrightsideofthedistribution.Italsomakespeoplerealizethattheyaretoobigtofail:iftheyfailtoexecutetheywillbringtheentireecosystemmultipledown.Andhard.”微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K "当它实现时固然利好，但在此之前只会引发质疑——这究竟锦上添花（额外收益）还是履⾏万亿承诺的必要条件？任何对1.4万亿计划执⾏能⼒的怀疑都会⽴即转化为当下的看空情绪。所以弗⾥亚尔推开了原本紧闭的⼤⻔，⽽这道⻔的开启同时释放了概率分布的两端可能。更让⼈警醒的是其'⼤⽽不能倒'属性：若计划流产，整个⽣态系统的估值倍数都将遭受重创，且后果惨烈。" Fourth,thesheerscaleoftheSS$1.4Tplan,whichisnearlythesizeofthewholeprivatecreditmarket,nudgedbothpublicandprivatelenderstorepriceAI-linkedrisk,mostnotablyseenintheriseofOracleandCoreweavesʼCDSspreads.Atthesametime,off-balance-sheetstructures—e.g.,Metaʼs$27B HyperionSPVwithBlueOwl—didnʼthelpbyconcentratingriskwithprivatecreditorsandmuddyingsystem-wideleveragemapping. 第四，萨姆1.4万亿美元计划的庞⼤规模（近乎整个私募信贷市场的体量）促使公私贷款机构重新评估AI相关⻛险定价，最明显表现在甲⻣⽂和Coreweave信⽤违约互换利差的⾛阔。同时，表外融资结构（如Meta通过BlueOwl设⽴的270亿美元Hyperion特殊⽬的公司）不仅⽆助于缓解⻛险，反⽽将⻛险集中于私⼈债权⼈⼿中，并模糊了整个系统的杠杆分布图景。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Theironicthingis,ifSSwouldhavebeenhalfthesize,thingswouldhavecontinuedtogrindalong,investorswouldhaveenjoyedthe‘27and‘28visibility,maybeevenbuildingtheenergyforalargeverticalascentinpriceaction.Instead,ithadtheoppositeeffect:pouringtoomuchgasolineonthefireanddrowningouttheenergyforabigmoveup. 讽刺的是，如果SS规模减半，本可以继续稳步推进，投资者还能享受2027和2028年的可⻅收益，甚⾄可能为价格⾛势的⼤幅垂直上涨积蓄能量。然⽽现实恰恰相反：过度浇灌的汽油反⽽扑灭了⼤幅上涨的能量之⽕。 Fifth—bylockingincommitmentseightyearsout,SSdraggedthelong-horizonAIdebateintothepresent.OverthelastfewweeksIʼveheardanincreasingamountofbullsgivevoicetoriskstheyʼvebeenabletonormallywaveawayoverthefirst3yearsoftheAItrade,inanunusualsignofhumility.Someofthekeyexistentialquestionsthatnowfeelmorepresentinthedis