香港金融业：活力之年，收官放缓

Hong Kong Financials A slower close for avibrant year Hong Kong ◆Depositand loan growthturnednegativein October; capitalmarket remainsvibrantbut turnover came down from peak Gary Lam*, CFAHead of Greater China Financials ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedgary.lam@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6926 ◆CRE risks resurfaceparticularlyformainland China, resulting Joanna Chan*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Financials and FintechThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjoanna.ct.chan@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 4826 ◆Prefer HKEXamong Hong Kong financials,rated Buy Entering the final stretch of2025:According to HKMA data, sector depositsfell by0.4% m-o-min October,bringing y-t-d growthto9.7%, or annualisedat11.8%perourestimates. Loan growth also turnednegative, down 0.7% m-o-m.On a positive note,mortgage loan growth stayed resilient (+0.8% m-o-m), echoing two consecutive months Daffy Ronald*AssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations NIIshouldstay positiveq-o-qfor4Q25:1M HIBORaveragedat3.25% in 4Q25 to-date, versus an average of 2.0% in 3Q25.Deposit mix improved moderatelywithCASA as %oftotal deposits roseby0.6ppt m-o-m to43.9%. HSBC’shouse viewsuggests a25bps Fedratecutin December 2025 (SeeFOMC minutes: Deliberatedecisions, 19November2025).Such a move is unlikely to have a material impact to Renewed concernoverChina commercial real estate (CRE) exposures:Marketconcerns haveincreasedfollowingVanke’s plan to restructure its onshore bond andafurther decline in second home prices in mainlandChina.We expecttherecoveryrateforoffshore lendersto belower thanthose onshore, andraised our credit cost ADT offfrompeak butIPO outlookremainsvibrant:Equitymarket ADTcame inatHKD231bn inNovember, down16.1% m-o-m.December ADT istypically c10%lower than Novemberdue to seasonality. That said,IPO pipeline stayed strong with367active applications as ofend-November; we expectthemajority of these deals to Investmentimplication:Commercialactivitiesincludingproperty transactionsandequity market ADTmay slow further in December, leading to a slower close for avibrant year.Among Hong Kong financials, weprefer HKEX(Buy)givenits unique strategic position to bridge investment needs between mainland China and therest of Extel Asia Survey 2026 14 Nov–5 Dec 2025 Click to vote Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Source:HKMA, HSBCNote: Oct data refers to y-t-d growth Source:HKEX, HSBC Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany other Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take sixto 12months for the market price to reflect this.When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stockwillbe classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy oraHold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it isbetween Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, change Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price. Prior to this date, HSBC’s rating structure was applied on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock’s domestic or, as appropriate,regional market established by our strategy team. The target price for a stock represented the value the analyst expected thestock to reach over our performance horiz