中国宏观经济跟踪报告：年内最后一轮政策会议临近

ChinaMacroTracker Last policy meetings for the year approaching ◆December Politburo and CEWC to lay out the economic policy Erin XinEconomist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk ◆Anti-involution campaigngets anotherpolicyboost, yet Lulu Jiang (Reg. No. S1700523070001)Economist, Greater ChinaHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlulu.l.l.jiang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3404 ◆Consumption policieslikely to emphasise bothsupplyand Jing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk Policy: Anticipation builds for the lastkey policy meetings to close out the year China’s growth has continued to see pressure amid renewed concerns aroundstabilisation ofthe property sector (seeHow to turn over a new leaf (V), 27 November)and signs of weakness spreading to services as well (seeChina NBS PMI, 30November). More focus will turn towards the upcoming December Politburo meetingandthe Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), both of which are typically heldin thefirsthalf of December. We do not expect to see specific policies announced, Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhou Weanticipatean ongoing push to use fiscal policies to provide support, particularlythrough special bonds. Recent comments from the Minister of Finance suggests fiscalsupport on par,or potentiallyevenstronger,for next year. Usage of new policy toolstohelp local governments fulfil minimum capital requirements(RMB500bn alreadydeployed)are poised todrive RMB7trn inprojectinvestments. Meanwhile,the authorities Anti-involution:Campaigngains policy momentum; industrial profits fall again Despite thecampaignkickingoffinJuly, progress has been relatively limited in pass-through toreal indicators such aspricing improvements. Meanwhile, industrial profitsdeclinedagain aftera brief rebound,falling5.5% y-o-y in October, partly due to a higher However, recently, there has been a pick-up in rhetoric around the anti-involutioncampaign.On 24 November, the NDRCheld a symposiumwith industry groups todevelop cost standardstoidentifyunfair pricing,address disorderly competition and Extel Asia Survey 2026 14 Nov–5 Dec 2025 If you appreciate our research, we would greatly value your support in theExtel Asia ResearchSurveyin the Macro sector/Economics,China Researchand Hong Kong researchcategories. Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Shortly after, on 28 November, the MIITheld a symposium with 12 battery industry executives andurgedfaster policysupportand better capacity monitoringto rein in disorderly competition in thepower and storage battery sector.Data showed thatthepower battery industry’s capacityutilisation was below 50% in 2024, while its prices have dropped about 80% over three years There are somesigns ofsuccess. Thenonferrous metalsindustry’s profit increased 14% y-o-y inOctober(NBS data),alongside the non-ferrous metals industryassociation calling for capacity capsin copper, zinc and lead smelting to address negative processing fees,using lessons learned fromthe aluminum industry (Reuters, 4 November). Regulators have haltedc2m tons ofplanned or under Beyond standards, capacity control, and mergers, we expect demand-side stimulus will be essentialto sustainthe momentum inthe anti-involution campaign.On 10 November, theNDRCand theNational Energy Administration formulated a plan to absorb new energy production capacity, Tech: Establishment of ascience-technology financecoordinationmechanism On27November, the PBOC and the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) convened thefirst meeting of the Science and Technology Finance Coordination and Promotion Mechanism,with aimsto align financial resources with technology innovation(pbc.gov.cn, 29 November).This meetingprovidedkey strategic directionstoguideS&Tfinance work during the 15thFYP, ◆Use ofstructural monetary policy tools, particularly theS&Tinnovation and transformationre-lending facility.Itsquota was increasedto RMB800bn in 2025fromRMB500bnin 2024. ◆Facilitating tech sector access toChina’s bond market.Securities Daily reported that as of1 December, y-t-d issuance of S&T innovation bonds reached RMB3.18trn, up 98% y-o-y(Securities Daily, 2 Dec). Since thelaunch in May2025, 287companieshaveissued ◆Improving the full lifecycle ofPE/VC“fundraising-investment-management-exit”cycle, Consumption:Chinatostrengthen support for consumption The drop in services activity in the NBS PMI printhighlights the need for more consumptionstimulus.On 26 November, China releasedaplan to boost consumption,outlining19 key tasksacross five areas, including expanding new demand, tapping into existing markets, and enablingnew consumption scenarios(eg,AI applications)(Xinhua, 26 November).By 2027, it a