金融衍生品研究

Morning Insight:December 1, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Silver: Over the past several weeks, we have strongly recommended buying preciousmetals on dips—particularly silver, given its structurally tight spotmarket. We remain convinced that several core views have not changed.First, the long-term strategic case for precious metals remains intact;short-term macro sentiment fluctuations simply provide entryopportunities, which can be identified using our relative-valuationmetrics and volatility signals. Second, silver’s chronic spot-market tightness implies that whenever risksentiment improves at the margin, silver tends to deliver outsizedelasticity on the upside. Third, with global macro liquidity improving and outweighing economic-demand fundamentals, commodity allocation should lean “non-fundamental.”Assets priced furthest from real-economy conditions face fewerconstraints on the upside—silver is a prime example. From a spot-market perspective, sentiment and indicators show thefollowing: London lease rates remain elevated at 5–6%, still abnormal butoff their highs. Based on our estimates, London’s deliverable inventoryhas recovered to roughly 3,400 tonnes sinceOctober—still low, butimproving on a sequential basis. In China, silver inventories have fallento historical lows, and year-end output targets are limiting incrementalrelease from smelters. However, last week the SGE silver T+D structure flipped from persistent backwardation (short paying long) to contango (long paying short),signaling that the spot market has not fully aligned with the sharp risein prices. Silver has now reached historic highs, and weekly fundamentalsshow mild softening at elevated price levels. For December, delivery-related risks across onshore and offshore markets remain manageable,though weekly price pullbacks are possible. LPG & Propylene: PGfaces short-term supply tightness but remains under medium-to long-term pressure;propylene fundamentals remain loose. Last Friday, the PG active contract surged sharply. Key drivers included:1.)Lower winter temperatures, leading to seasonally stronger residentialheating demand;2.)Concentrated winter maintenance in the Middle Eastreducing supply, tightening propane spot availability, with strong buyinginterest and limited selling;3.)Several consecutive days of strength inoverseas paper markets, with FEI rising more than USD 30/ton over theweek;4.)Although PDH units are currently deeply loss-making, operatorsshow limited willingness to shut down, keeping chemical demand strongerthan expected. However, as the MOPJ–FEI spread narrows, propane’s cracking economicsdeteriorate; combined with the onset of blending off-season and weaknessin MTBE, LPG chemical-sector demand is expected to weaken. The NorthAmerica–Far East arbitrage window is open, implying potential incrementalsupply from North America. In addition, December CP was released onSunday: propane at USD 495/ton (+20), broadly in line with expectations,but still USD 100–200/ton below FEI on a delivered basis, limiting FEI’sfurther upside. Medium-to long-term, downstream chemical capacityadditions slow in 2026, while Middle Eastern and U.S. supply growthgradually materializes, keeping downward pressure on PG’s trend.Forpropylene, Shandong spot prices rose early last week and fell later.Early in the week, futures were constrained by weak downstream PP andfailed to follow the rally, resulting in a basis of RMB 150/ton. By Friday, strong propane costs pulled propylene higher, decoupling it fromPP. However, bullish catalysts are now fully priced in. Severe downstreamlosses and shutdowns at major merchant-purchase units keep supply-demandconditions loose. A short-term peak likely has been reached, though PDHand powder-grade unit operating trends warrant close monitoring. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1.The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's non-manufacturingsector came in at 49.5 in November, down 0.6 percentage points from theprevious month, official data showed Sunday. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 reflectscontraction. The service sector, influenced by the fading effect of the holidayseason, saw its business activity index fall to 49.5, a decrease of 0.7percentage points from October, according to the National Bureau ofStatistics (NBS). Railway transportation, telecommunications and broadcasting, and monetaryand financial services maintained strong growth, with their activityindices staying above 55. The business expectation index for the service sector, although dippingslightly by 0.2 percentage points, stayed at a relatively high level of55.9, indicating sustained optimism among service