种子投资者应该追高并付出代价吗？——探索种子轮进入估值对最终回报的影响

PitchBook Analyst Note:Should Seed Investors Ride theHigh and Pay the Price? PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President ofResearch and Market Intelligence Daniel Cook, CFAGlobal Head of QuantitativeResearch and Market IntelligenceZane Carmean, CFA, CAIADirector ofQuantitative Research Exploring the impact of seed-stage entry valuations on Institutional Research Group PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most Susan HuQuantitative Research Analystsusan.hu@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Key takeaways PublishingDesigned byDrew Sanders •Top-decile seed rounds are priced around $40 million pre-money in 2025, nearly3x the series median of $15 million. These deals absorb most of the capital andcompress ownership stakes—around 20% versus 25% for typical seed rounds— Published on November 14, 2025 Contents •Seed pricing appears broadly efficient. Across seed deals from 2006 to 2021 withexits observed through 2025, most deals, whether priced high or low, producedsimilar average deal-level return MOIC. The key difference lies in failure rates, Key takeawaysIntroductionDefining the consensusPricing efficiency at the seed stageConsensus risk and reward tradeoffFuture exit implicationsPortfolio simulation by eraAppendix •Consensus rounds deliver steadier outcomes and fewer outright losses, whilealso producing a slightly higher share of 10x-plus winners. Their medianannualized return is roughly 35%—higher than the broader seed market— •IPO timelines have stretched from 7.5 to 9.4 years. Longer holding periodsmaterially raise the bar for sustaining historical returns. For top consensusrounds in 2025, that difference can mean needing exit values of around $10 •Simulations show that paying up selectively, choosing only the highest-qualityconsensus deals, outperforms spray-and-pray diversification. Simulation seedportfolios build from deals entered between 2016 and 2021 and tracked through Introduction Venture investing begins with business uncertainty, and many early investmentsare made on the founding team alone. Stronger signals or early traction can driverounds higher as investors converge and competition rises, creating an image of a“consensus” round—one that a broad cohort of investors believes will be a winner.Valuations of these deals can rise sharply, and GPs often rationalize higher entry Today’s market makes that question more relevant than ever. Capital is increasinglyconcentrated in AI, while activity across much of the rest of venture remains The effect is most pronounced at the earlier stages, where pricing decisions aremade with the least information and the most uncertainty. Early valuations are setamid limited information, making differences especially visible in access, conviction, and signal. Building upon prior PitchBook research on VC deal returns—using the VC Return by Series framework, which links financing rounds, cap-table data,and realized exits—we examine the top 10% of rounds by valuation,1referred tothroughout this note as “consensus” deals. These rounds capture a portion of the Defining the consensus Understanding whether consensus rounds are worth the price first requires definingwhat consensus looks like and why it has become so prevalent in early-stage venture. Our PitchBook analyst note,Seed Under Pressure, looks at how median dealsizes have tripled over the past decade, while average fund sizes have remainedrelatively flat, compressing ownership stakes and extending fund timelines. Theentry of larger, multistage firms at earlier stages has increased pricing pressure, Consensus deals are expensive not only in valuation but also in structure. Theserounds absorb a disproportionate share of capital, forcing investors to write largerfirst checks and keep smaller amounts for follow-ons if their fund is constrained. Captables are more crowded, rounds are more likely to be insider-led, and time to close These consensus rounds do not translate into proportionally larger stakes forinvestors. Founders in consensus deals give up around 20% versus roughly 25%for the rest of the broader seed rounds. Yet, whether due to company strength orinvestor scale, consensus investors are more likely to lead subsequent rounds,supported by larger fund sizes and a greater capacity to defend ownership. The gap Consensus does not guarantee success, but pricing and participation are deeplyintertwined. Startups in these rounds often benefit from smoother syndication,faster signaling, and stronger support in downturns—advantages that may reflect Pricing efficiency at the seed stage Average seed return multiple on invested capital (MOIC) by Do higher entry prices systematically translate into better outcomes? To answerthis, we grouped 2006-2021 seed deals into 10 valuation deciles within each yearbased on the broader seed market distribution, from lowest to highest pre-money Among realized, successful outcomes, lower-priced