全球汽车行业：拆解“其他成本”谜团

EquitiesAutomobiles Mysterybuckets–looking into the “other” Global ◆We try tounravelthe“industrial/other costs”mystery,whichwethinkislinked to quality, supplier compensation and cost cuts Michael Tyndall*, CFASenior Global Autos AnalystHSBC Bank plcmichael.tyndall@hsbc.com ◆Weexpect risks for Stellantis from its recall/warranty issues andfor Porsche due to 718 BEV launch delay Pushkar Tendolkar*Global Autos AnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets(India) Private Limitedpushkarnarendratendolkar@hsbc.co.in ◆Supplier compensation doesn’t appear to be an issue forMBG/BMW in 2026;VW to continue to benefit from cost cuts Alice Martin*Global Autos AnalystHSBC Bank plcalice.martin@hsbc.com Unpredictability has become more of a feature of auto results.In Q3 we have seemhugeunexplainedpositiveelement(cEUR0.9bn) forBMWandbetter-than-expectedEBITfor Mercedessupported by “industrial performance”.In contrast,Stellantis flaggedhighercosts associated withchanges to strategic plans and review of warranties.Much as thecompanies havetriedto explain the drivers of these other/industrial contributions,what is * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBCSecurities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Quality–mountingissuesat Stellantis, BMW recovering.US NHTSA data showsStellantisincursarelatively highnumber of recallsvs peers.The number of vehiclesimpacted in the US isdown YoY for H2, but excluding software fixes,it looks to be upc26% YoY. We can’t be definitive, but we wonder if this islinked tolowerspending onR&Dhistorically.In addition, STLAM seems to beunder-provisioning for warrantiesvs Pivoting away from BEVs is not without a cost–we assume carmakers have beencompelled to pay compensation where volumes have been far (20-30%) belowcontractual agreements.We think thiswasan issue for MBG and BMW in 2023/24, butthatithas eased in 2025. To our minds it explains alarge part of the unexplainedEBIT Cost savings–VW hits a sweet spot.Fixed cost savings were a majortailwind inVWGroup’s Q3results,and we expect incremental savings in 4Q25/2026, benefitting fromefficiency programmes for the VW and Audi brands. At the other end is BMW,whichdespite delivering margins well below its 8-10% strategic corridor,doesn’t have an explicit Which isthe clearest?VW (rated Buy) and Renault (rated Buy), appear to be theclearest.Renault has no tariff exposure and hasn’t reported any supplier compensationissues either. VW has a product+fixed cost bucket,but directionally wehavelittle doubtthatthiswill be supportive inthenear term,driven bycost savings.We make estimates Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Cutting through opacity ◆Stellantis appears at risk of higher warranty provisions, potentiallydue toR&Dunderspending and underprovisioning in the past ◆Supplier compensation risk appears diminishedinthenearterm,butrelaxation of CO2 regulationscould again bring it to the fore ◆Althoughthe amount may be debatable, cost actions should helpsupport profitability for VW, RNO and MBG; BMW appearsto be Searching for answers to the unknowns.Whether it’s the flagging of one-offs in 2H25 forStellantis or the significant magnitude of “Other” at BMW in Q3, we have seen in 2025 anincreasingdegree of hard-to-forecast/unexplained contributions and headwinds to autos EBIT. Some of these“unknowns”arerelatively easy to model on first principles, eg,tariffs and we have generally foundour forecasts align quite closely with company guidance. Conversely, issues around quality The answers.STLAM has had to recall almost 7.5m vehicleso farover 2024-25, which pointstoquality issues andagrowing riskonwarranties. Potentially underspending on R&D in thepast and also underprovisioning of warranties (relative to peers) has exposed ittolikely costpressure in 2H25/2026. Even the company has indicatedthelikelihood of one-off charges in Neither ofthe German premium OEMs, Mercedes and BMW,appear to be at incremental risk ofsupplier compensation in 2026.Mercedes could even benefit froman ongoing efficiency plan,but we don’t see that potential for BMW,where workforce has largely increased over the past 3- Porsche, in contrast,could seefurthercost pressure due toan ongoing need to paysuppliercompensation, especially due to the delay in the launch of the 718 BEV from an earlier timelineof 4Q25 to 2027 (source: S&P forecasts),which exposes it to >20k lost volumes in 2026eandhence the likelihood of compensation for non-battery suppliers (note: one ofthe reasons for the For VW (ex. Porsche brand) and RNO, themystery bucketsare relatively easy to gauge, atleastdirectionally,asthey are largely driven by cost savings (and expenses associated withrestructuring for VW). VW’s ongoing efficiency plan puts