如何将气温上升的影响纳入长期GDP预测（英）2025

How to Include the Effects of Rising Temperatures in Long-Term GDP Projections NOTE/2025/009 Samuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, and Filippos Tagklis* Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names: Centorrino, Samuele, author. | Massetti, Emanuele, 1977-, author. | Raissi, Mehdi, author. | Tagklis,Filippos, author. | International Monetary Fund, publisher.Title: How to include the effects of rising temperatures in long-term GDP projections / Samuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, and Filippos Tagklis. Other titles: How to notes. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2025. | Nov. 2025. | NOTE/2025/009. | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: ISBN: 9798229030021(paper)9798229030366(ePub)9798229031790(WebPDF) Subjects: LCSH: Macroeconomics—Forecasting. | Climate change.Classification: LCC HB172.5.C4 2025 DISCLAIMER: How to Notes offer practical advice from IMF staff members to policymakers on important issues.The views expressed in How to Notes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of RECOMMENDED CITATION: Centorrino, Samuele, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, and Filippos Tagklis.2025. “How to Include the Effects of Rising Temperatures in Long-Term GDP Projections.” IMF How to Note2025/009, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publications ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@imf.org Contents Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1The Empirical Literature on the Macroeconomic Impact of Rising Temperatures .............................................. 3Unbiased Macroeconomic Estimates of Trend Temperature Increases ............................................................. 4Impacts of Trend Temperature Increase on GDP Using Climate Scenarios..................................................... 10 Box Box 1. A Schematic Description .............................................................................................................................. 8 Figures Figure 1. A Three-Step Approach to Include Climate Impacts in Macroeconomic Frameworks ............................ 2Figure 2. Growth and Temperature ......................................................................................................................... 6Figure 3: Additional Global Temperature Increase Under Different Scenarios (2014–2100) ................................. 9Figure 4. Temperature Scenarios in a Randomly Chosen Country ...................................................................... 12Figure 5. Impact of Warming Trends on Real GDP in a Randomly Chosen Country Using 30-Year HistoricalNorms............................................................................................................................................................. 12Figure 6. Impact of Warming Trends on Real GDP for Different Levels of Adaptation in a Randomly ChosenCountry........................................................................................................................................................... 13Figure 7. Impact of Warming Trends on Real GDP in a Randomly Chosen Country Using 30-Year HistoricalNorms, with Confidence Intervals .................................................................................................................. 14 Table Table 1. Key Statistics for the Distribution Across Countries of Impacts of Warming Trends on Real GDP in 2100....................................................................................................................................................................... 16 How to Include the Effects of Rising Samuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, and Filippos Tagklis Climate change threatens macroeconomic and financial stability through rising temperatures, shiftingprecipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and intense extreme weather, in addition to otherfactors. To better assess vulnerabilities and future risks, climate change effects should be integrated inlong-term macroeconomic projections. This note shows how to include the effect of rising temperatures intolong-term GDP projections using a three-step method: (1) estimating macroeconomic effects of rising Introduction Climate change impacts can affect both the supply and demand side of economies in several significant ways.On the supply side, higher temperatures can lead to a decrease in output by reducing agricultural crop yields,diminishing labor productivity due to impaired physical and cognitive performance, and increasing rates ofmortality and morbidity, for example. More severe droughts are a drag on the economy, especially on a