全球汽车产业的下一步？能源技术展望特别报告

What Next for theGlobal Car Industry? An Energy Technology PerspectivesSpecial Report INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAMembercountries: IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Foreword In modern history, few innovations have been more consequential than the car. Today, cars are central to the lives of millions of people around the world. Themarket for cars is one of the largest for a single product, and this productrepresentsthe single largest source of oil demand,a key trend that theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) has tracked closely for decades. What’s more,car manufacturing is a pillar of the economy in many countries today, directlyemploying over 10 million people across the world – while supporting millions ofadditional jobs elsewhere in the supply chain, from steel and aluminium productionto component manufacturing. Yet as we look at the data, we can see that the car industry is undergoing majorchanges,which merit close attention for their implications for energy andeconomies. Three fundamental shifts are underway – in terms of the geographyof car production, in terms of the regions that are driving sales growth, and in termsof the technologies being chosen by consumers. This is posing challenges formany internationally renowned carmakers, which have honed their craft overdecades of manufacturing focused on internal combustion engine cars. The geographic shift in global car production has been led by China, which morethan doubled its output between 2010 and 2024 to account for 40% of global carmanufacturing capacity today. In 2024, China overtook the European Union tobecome the world’s largest car exporter, propelled by significant investments inthe manufacturing of electric cars and their batteries. At the same time, as a result of rising incomes and government policies, carownership in emerging economies is growing quickly while demand in advancedeconomies has levelled off. The share of emerging and developing economies intotal car sales worldwide grew from 20% in 2000 to 50% today. In terms of technologies, the share of electric cars on the road is increasing rapidlyworldwide. Electric cars accounted for more than a fifth of all cars sold globally in2024, while sales of cars that exclusively run on internal combustion engines weresignificantly below their 2017 peak. This year, one in four cars sold worldwide isexpected to be electric. These changes have raised major questions about the future of the global carindustry. The decisions facing incumbent carmakers today will shape their future competitiveness for decades to come, as well as the futures of companies acrossthe broader car supply chain. They will also have implications for the wider energysector, including oil, electricity and beyond. Against this backdrop, I commissioned this report to provide a strong empiricalbasis to inform decision-making by governments and industry, highlighting themajor opportunities and challenges ahead. It includes first-of-its-kind analysisbased on a review of market data, costs and consultations with industry players.The focus is on understanding the implications of the major changes outlinedabove for economies and the energy sector. We fully recognise that consumerswill choose their cars based on their own preferences and that carmakers maypursue strategies encompassing a wide range of technologies. I would like to commend the talented and hardworking IEA colleagues who led thisanalysis – with special thanks to lead authors Leonardo Paoli and ElizabethConnelly, overseen by Araceli Fernandez Pales, the Head of the IEA’s TechnologyInnovation Unit, and IEA Chief Energy Technology Officer Timur Gül. Their workacross a broad range of energy technologies provides valuable insights to informdiscussions worldwide about the car industry and the energy sector. Dr Fatih BirolExecutive DirectorInternational Energy Agency Acknowledgements