贸易的未来：特别茶饮版

AGRICOMMODITIES TABLE OFCONTENTS 24Section 3:Key players value Every day, more than fivebillion cups of tea areconsumed worldwide, Every day, more than five billion cups of tea are consumedworldwide, making it the most popular drink after water1.From delicately brewed breakfast tea in London to amber- Yet behind its calming image, tea is a restless commodity.Climate change is altering yields in India and Kenya, whileshifting consumer tastes are fuelling demand for premium, This report explores how tea’s future will be shaped byclimate resilience, changing consumer palates, regulatory Regulatory and EXECUTIVESUMMARY Market access is increasingly tied to sustainability credentials.The European Union’s deforestation regulation and rising Climate squeeze Global supply remains concentrated in a handful ofproducers including China, India, Kenya and Sri Lanka. Thesecountries are highly exposed to rising temperatures, erratic Finance goes digital Tea’s reliance on smallholders makes access to credit a perennialchallenge. New models such as supply chain finance linked to From black to bubbles Traditional black tea consumption is stagnating in maturemarkets, while growth is surging in premium, organic and Strategic trade hubs Dubai has emerged as a key global re-export hub through theblending, packaging and warehousing of millions of kilos of tea SECTION 1 PRODUCTIONLANDSCAPE MARKETSNAPSHOT Tea production is highly concentrated,with China and India dominating thefield (figure 1). Together they account Most tea is consumed at home andabout three-quarters never crosses aborder.2Nevertheless, exports remain Global tea production amounts toaround $18 billion annually, while the Top ten tea producing countries globally (MMT), 2023–24 “Every production centre is beingaffected by global warming. So, there “When we talk about pricing, it’s thesingle biggest problem associated withtea. There’s a perception that it’s not a Dan BoltonPublisher, Tea Journeyand Tea Biz beverage expert Dilhan C. FernandoChairman, Dilmah Ceylon Tea Companyand Kahawatte Plantations More recently in 2024–2025, conditionsgrew harsher. India’s output droppednearly 8% as extreme heat and floodsbattered Assam’s peak harvest,lifting domestic prices.4Sri Lanka’s Trade and prices are likely to staychoppy but not one-way. The WorldBank expects tea prices to dip in 2025as South Asian and East African supplyrecovers, before partially reboundingin 2026.7Much depends on weather Bolton, Publisher at Tea Journey anda beverage expert at Tea Biz, “there’sa perception that it’s not a high valueproduct.” It is this perception that isleaving producers squeezed betweenrising costs and stagnant auction Pricing remains the central weaknessin the global tea trade. “When we talk In 2024,consumersworldwide spentan estimated $282billion on tea in allmajor formats andchannels. Roughly Consumerdemand is tiltingtoward premium,organic andfunctional teas— Out-of-home consumption accountedfor approximately $85 billion, drivenby China’s rapidly growing new-style GREEN IS THENEW BLACK Over the past decades, the global teaindustry has seen rapid growth, witha remarkable rise in the number ofconsumers globally, particularly amongemerging economies and low and middle- Structural shifts are also reshapingthe sector. Consumer demand istilting toward premium, organic andfunctional teas—valued for benefitssuch as boosting immunity or aidingsleep—pushing producers and buyers Matcha’santioxidants andsteady, lower-caffeine energyboost are toutedas a cleaneralternative to Matcha, a Japanese powdered greentea that is traditionally whisked intohot water to form a frothy drink, hasmoved from niche ceremonial useinto mainstream cafés and ready-to-drink lines, its antioxidant haloand Instagrammable colour helpingit notch robust growth.10The globalmarket, valued at $4.24 billion, isforecast to expand by more than 50% Global black tea production isprojected to expand modestly, rising1.6% annually to 4.42 million tonnesby 2032. Green tea, by contrast, isset for faster growth of 6.3% a year, Riding this trend is Tetley Green Tea, abrand under Tata Consumer Products,which announced the launch of two FIGURE 2 Bubble teacontinues tothrive. Once aTaiwanese niche,it has growninto one of thefastest-expanding Convenienceis a key driverof demand,particularly among Meanwhile, nitro-brew teas such asthose from East Forged are edging NEWOCCASIONS,NEW At the playful end of the spectrum,bubble tea continues to thrive. Oncea Taiwanese niche, it has grown intoone of the fastest-expanding segmentsof the global beverage market, withsales forecast to rise nearly 9% annually Tea is no longer confined and defined bykettles and porcelain cups and youngercohorts are shaping new formats. “Asbrand owners, there’s a lot of work tobe done in the areas of sustainability,ethics, agility, quality and innovationto stay abreast of this very complex house,” says Mr Bolton. “They want t