化工：席卷亚洲的产业重组浪潮（简体版）

Takato WatabeEquity AnalystTakato.Watabe@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-5436 Chemicals: Wave of Industry RestructuringSweeping Across AsiaSimplified Version) Ryoichi WatanabeEquity AnalystRyoichi.Watanabe@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-8929 Petrochemical majors (industry view: Attractive):Expecting continued weak petrochemical demand and ethyleneutilization rates, but in addition to China’s anti-involution policies, there are signs of naphtha cracker downsizing in SouthKorea; believe the overall mood is improving. Asia petchem prices and spreads unlikely to fall further, but probably lackrecovery momentum. Added impetus for industry reorganization. Investment indicators remain low and shares look Electronic chemicals (industry view: In-line):In addition to the expansion of AI semiconductors, demand for legacysemiconductors is also gradually recovering, and a steady growth trend continues. For silicon wafers, although userinventory levels remain high, the recovery trend continues, centered on 300mm wafers. Continue to recommend stock-picking based on company-specific factors. We see investment appeal for ZEON and continue to like Shin-Etsu Chemical Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Fine chemicals (industry view: In-line):Carbon fiber composite materials show significant revenue improvement due tofull recovery in aircraft applications. Toray is our Top Pick, with the top share in carbon fiber business and strength intextiles and functional chemicals. We are OW on Toray (3402); EW on DIC (4631); EW on Gunze (3002); UW on Teijin For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. (“MUMSS”) is acting as financial advisor to Tanaka ChemicalCorporation ("Tanaka Chemical") in relation to share exchange transaction by Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd. Chemical. The proposed transaction is subject to the approval of the shareholders' meeting of Tanaka Chemical and CLICK HERE FOR ACCESS Overall summary:Chemicals industry coverage list & key investment metrics Recommended stocks: Toray (3402), Sumitomo Chemical (4005), Asahi Kasei (3407),Mitsui Chemicals (4183), Zeon (4205), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) Overseas chemical industry market cap trends / market cap ranking of global chemicalcompanies (Top 20) Stock performance ranking FY2025 Jul–Sep results review For FY2025 Jul–Sep, results landed largely as expected, but with mixed performance. In the Petrochemical industry, FY2025 Jul–Sep results were mixed: while pharmaceuticals saw a significantrecovery, the petrochemical business faced challenging conditions.For FY2026 overall, we expect a double-digit profit growth. Electronics Chemicalsposted mixed results for FY2025 Jul–Sep, with both overshoots/shortfalls.Products related to semiconductors, laptop PCs, and North American smartphones performed well.For FY2026 overall, we forecast a profit growth of just over 10%. Fine chemicalsalso showed mixed results for FY2025 Jul–Sep with overshoots/shortfalls.With raw material prices stabilizing, earnings expanded steadily for most companies, except for a few outliers. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates,Source:Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Petrochemical majors:Industry view: Attractive Petchemdemand, ethylene utilization rate remain weak, but inaddition to China’s anti-involution policies, there are signs of naphtha cracker downsizing in South Korea,and we believe theoverall mood is improving.Asianpetchemprices and spreads look to have bottomed, but lack momentum for rebound. Industry reorganization gaining pace. Investment indicators remain low,with stocks looking undervalued overall.Investment appeal in Sumitomo Chemicals, as it concentrates management resources to accelerate growth in the agrochemicals and IT-related fields, Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research Progress on restructuring at olefin complexes Japan Petrochemicals Industry to accelerate petrochemicals business restructuring Supply/demand for petrochemicals has worsened further as ethylene production in China has surged since 2020. Reconsolidationmomentum in Japan’spetchemindustryis gaining steam. Industry is shifting business structures from a focus on basic chemicals (vulnerable to economic swings) tohigh-margin functional chemicals (relatively Electronic Chemicals (Industry view: In-line) Source: Morgan Stanley Research (estimated ba