汇丰中国消费者追踪：由于补贴基数较高，增长面临压力

EquitiesConsumer Growth under pressure due to a higher base ofsubsidy-covered categories China ◆Oct retailgrew 2.9%(consensus: 2.8%): trade-in categoriesdeceleratedon high base while cateringgrowthimproved Katharine Song* (Reg. No. S1700517120001)Head of A-share Consumer ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedkathy.l.h.song@hsbcqh.com.cn ◆GMV growth slowed down during “Double 11”festival in 2025◆Stocks of the month: Ninebot, Weilong and YUTO, all Buys Darron Xue* (Reg. No. S1700518110002)Analyst, A-share Food & Beverage and Pulp & PaperHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddarron.xue@hsbcqh.com.cn OctRetailgrowthslightly higher than Bloombergconsensus.According to NBS,China's retail growth continued to decelerate sequentially in October, up 2.9% y-o-y(vs Bloombergconsensus of 2.8%; 4.3% y-o-y in 10M25).Retail goods grew2.8%y-o-y,with categories covered bytrade-insubsidiesshowingsignificant slowdowns, especiallyforhome appliances and audiovisual equipmentwhich together weredown 14.6% y-o-y,off a higher base (home appliances’ retail sales was up 39.2% y-o-y inOct2024 afterthelaunch ofsubsidy fundsin August).Onthepositive side:Catering grew3.8%, an obvious Li Quan* (Reg. No. S1700520030002)Analyst, A-Share Consumer SectorHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedli.quan@hsbcqh.com.cn Doris Luo* (Reg. No. S1700524120003)Analyst, A-share Consumer ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddoris.y.s.luo@hsbcqh.com.cn Eric Liu* (Reg. No. S1700525040001)Analyst, A-share Consumer ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitederic.x.c.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn GMVw d d wn dng h“b”.According to Syntun, GMV increased12% y-o-y during the 2025 “Double 11” shopping festival, vs 15%in the“618”festivalthis year and 27% in “Double 11” last year. We think the deceleration could bepartlyexplained by: (1)ahigherbase of home appliances and other key categories covered bysubsidies; (2) consumer demand being diverted due to prolonged festival period andmore campaignsandsubsidiesat non-festival time; and (3) brands’ control on trafficinvestmentunder the newtaxpolicy, resulting in lower efficiency inKOLlive-streamingsales. Forhome appliances, sales growth subdued notably with subsidies scaling down, * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Moreconsumption stimulus to be anticipated.The 4th Plenum, which was concludedon 23 October, proposed to boost consumption and expand effectiveinvestment.We see Stock of the month:(1) Ninebot:Thecompany continued to deliver impressiveoperating performance in3Q, andwe stillexpect solidgrowth prospect for all of itsbusinesses. E2W sales milestones could be a near-term catalyst. The stock is tradingat 22/16x 2025/26e PE on 2024-27e net profit CAGR of 48%;(2)Weilong:Weexpect konjak category expansion to remain a key driver, and channel expansionshould bring incremental growth. The stock is trading at 20/17x 2025/26e PEwith 5%/6% 2025/26e dividend yield, on 2024-27e EPS CAGR of 20.4%; and(3) YUTO:Strong sales in Apple's(its major customer)iPhone 17 could be ashort-termcatalyst.Over the long run, we believe trade tensions could trigger a faster order migration tooverseas, benefitting YUTO given its competitiveness in overseas markets, with its Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC QianhaiSecurities Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Related reports: Ninebot (689009 CH): Buy: Ongoing growth momentum, 28October2025Weilong Delicious (9985 HK): Buy: Key takeaways from company visit, 17 October 2025 Charts navigation: Macro focusShare performance and valuationSubsector–Food & BeverageSubsector–CosmeticsSubsector–Hotel & TourismSubsector–Light Manufacturing & FurnitureSubsector–Home appliances Macro data tracker Share performance and valuation Subsector–Food & Beverage Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities Subsector–Cosmetics Subsector–Hotel & Tourism Subsector–Lightmanufacturing & furniture Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities Subsector–Home appliances Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andan