外汇观点：中电、选举和铜超级周期

The CLP, the elections and the SIGNATURE Near-term CLP dynamics will be driven by the upcomingelections. We think a copper supercycle that boostsinvestment is structurally supportive for the peso, however,regardless of who wins. The speed of the appreciation could Andrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.com Erick Martinez+1 212 526 9380erick.martinez@barclays.com •The Chilean presidential election is on November 16. Polls suggest Jara will go to arun-offversus Kast or Kaiser, following his recent momentum. While they indicate Kast wouldcomfortably defeat Jara and uncertainty would likely be resolvedafterthe first round, arun- Ashiftback to the right should boost the peso, which has underperformed in the past severalmonths. A Jara win would likely initially drive a weaker peso, similar to when Boric won. Thatsaid, we think Chile's fundamental story is strong, and the cabinet and Congressional •Strong global demand for copper is likely to sustain the CLP, almost regardless of the electionoutcome. We would not be surprised to see a multi-year investment cycle similar to 2011-14,amid the AI infrastructure build-out. Mining investment picked up in 2024 and estimates havebeen revised up meaningfully this year. A right-wing president would likely accelerate the The current account deficit has widened recently as mining projects pick up, but we do notsee this as a concern for the FX. Chile imports capital and intermediate goods for theseinvestments and the income balance deteriorates as foreign firms generate earnings and paydividends abroad. FDIoffsetsthe negative income balance with a lag when copper prices are •Some factors should slow the speed of CLP appreciation, and we pencil in a USDCLP at 900 inthe near term for these reasons. The BCCh launched a reserve accumulation program inAugust, which tends to weigh on the currency over time. Moreover, carry is not high anymore Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 10.Completed: 10-Nov-25, 13:51 GMTReleased: 10-Nov-25, 13:55 GMT The CLP and the elections Polls suggest Jara will go torun-offagainst Kast or Kaiser... The first round of the presidential elections is on November 16. Polls suggests that JeanetteJara, the Communist Party candidate, is poised to win the first round (Figure 1). Until recently,the right's José Antonio Kast was widely polled to come in second, but the far-right's populistcandidate, Johannes Kaiser, has gained momentum and tightened the gap in the latest polls. The two leading presidential candidates look set to go to arun-offon December 14, as pollsshow no candidate is likely to come close to an absolute majority (ie, 50% of valid votes, whichexcludes blank and null votes). Most second-round projections point to a comfortable win byKast over Jara, while arun-offwith Kaiser looks tighter, as the percentage of undecided votes is Congressional elections also take place on November 16 (there is no second round for these),with some polls projecting that the right will have a slim majority in both houses, though there ...and near-term CLP dynamics should depend on which right-wing candidate Whether Kast or Kaiser makes therun-offis relevant for CLP price dynamics in the next severalweeks, as it should determine when uncertainty peaks, in our view. The peso has decoupledfrom terms of trade since the Juneleft-wingprimaries (Figure 4), falling behind when global riskrallies and incorporating an election premium. We think this should be unwound when markets Arun-offbetween Kast and Jara suggests that uncertainty will peakafterthe firstround, favoring Kast, given the wide gap in the polls and the recentshiftto mandatory voting.That is, Kast is poised to capture most of Kaiser's and Matthei's votes, as he is between them on afterthe first round. A right-wing victory would likely reignite animal spirits and boost portfolioinflows and investment.1 Uncertainty would only peak into the second round, however, if therun-offwere between Jaraand Kaiser, in our view. Figure 3 shows the USDCLPaftertwo tight, surprising elections betweentheleftand the right. When right-wing candidate Piñera defeatedcenter-leftcandidate Guillierin a tightrun-offin 2017, the CLP rallied about 10%afterinitially sellingoffc.5%afterthe firstround (Guillier making the second round was a surprise andrun-offpolls were tight).In 2021,Boric and Kast went to arun-off,which was also a surprise and was followed by an 8%sell-offin We would expect a similar reactionafterthe first round this time, as markets would look for newpolls for guidance on the outcome. Under a Kaiser win, we think the peso would quickly re-couple with terms of trade, similar to t